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Identifying turbulent and calm regimes in stock prices: evidence from the Taiwan stock market

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  • Yu-Lieh Huang

Abstract

In this article, we apply the innovation regime-switching model, recently proposed by Kuan et al. (2005, JBES), to identify turbulent and calm regimes in stock prices. Based on the predictions of both regimes, we construct simple trading rules and investigate their profitability. Our results suggest that the proposed trading rules outperform the buy-and-hold strategy.

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  • Yu-Lieh Huang, 2009. "Identifying turbulent and calm regimes in stock prices: evidence from the Taiwan stock market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(14), pages 1477-1481.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:16:y:2009:i:14:p:1477-1481
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850701578793
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maheu, John M & McCurdy, Thomas H, 2000. "Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 100-112, January.
    2. Mariano Matilla-Garcia, 2006. "Are trading rules based on genetic algorithms profitable?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 123-126.
    3. Yu-Lieh Huang, 2007. "An alternative estimation algorithm for innovation regime-switching models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 225-229.
    4. Fabozzi, Frank J & Francis, Jack Clark, 1977. "Stability Tests for Alphas and Betas over Bull and Bear Market Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1093-1099, September.
    5. Saumitra N. Bhaduri & S. Raja Sethu Durai, 2006. "Asymmetric beta in bull and bear market conditions: evidences from India," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 55-59, January.
    6. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
    7. Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46.
    8. Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. " Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
    9. Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Gonzalez-Martel, Christian & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 2000. "On the profitability of technical trading rules based on artificial neural networks:: Evidence from the Madrid stock market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 89-94, October.
    10. Chen, Son-Nan, 1982. "An Examination of Risk-Return Relationship in Bull and Bear Markets Using Time-Varying Betas," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(02), pages 265-286, June.
    11. Kuan, Chung-Ming & Huang, Yu-Lieh & Tsay, Ruey S., 2005. "An Unobserved-Component Model With Switching Permanent and Transitory Innovations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 443-454, October.
    12. Yu-Lieh Huang & Chao-Hsi Huang, 2007. "The persistence of Taiwan's output fluctuations: an empirical study using innovation regime-switching model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(20), pages 2673-2679.
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