IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Do demand and supply shocks explain USA's oil stock fluctuations?

  • Hayat, Aziz
  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar

In this paper using historical monthly data on the US oil stocks (Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Ending Stock-coppes), industrial production, energy use for transportation, oil production, and oil imports, we examine whether supply and demand shocks explain the apparent decline in the volatility of the growth of COPPES since about the mid-1980s. We find that nearly 70% of the variation in the US COPPES growth is explained by its supply and demand factors, each sharing about half of this variation. This is on account of sharp decline in the contribution of persistence to the US COPPES growth variation from about 47% in the pre-break period to about 17% in the post-break period. This reduction is taken up by increased contribution of demand and supply factors since mid 1980s, of which growth variances have declined on net since then. This in turn contributes to the stability of the US COPPES growth fluctuations.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Applied Energy.

Volume (Year): 88 (2011)
Issue (Month): 8 (August)
Pages: 2908-2915

in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:88:y:2011:i:8:p:2908-2915
Contact details of provider: Web page:

Order Information: Postal:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. D'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
  2. Hayat, Aziz & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2010. "The oil stock fluctuations in the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-184, January.
  3. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2007. "Modelling oil price volatility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6549-6553, December.
  4. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:88:y:2011:i:8:p:2908-2915. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.