The Calibration Of Probabilistic Economic Forecasts
A probabilistic forecast is the estimated probability with which a future event will satisfy a particular criterion. One interesting feature of such forecasts is their calibration, or the match between predicted probabilities and actual outcome probabilities. Calibration has been evaluated in the past by gropuing probability forecasts into discrete categories. Here we show that we can do so without discrete groupings; the kernel estimators that we use produce efficiency gains and smooth estimated curves relating predicted and actual probabilities. We use such estimates to evaluate the empirical evidence on calibration error in a number of economic applications including recession and inflation prediction, using both forecasts made and stored in real time and pseudo-forecasts made using the data vintage available at the forecast date. We evaluate outcomes using both first-release outcome measures as well as later, thoroughly revised data. We find strong evidence of incorrect calibration in professional forecasts of recessions and inflation. We also present evidence of asymmetries in the performace of inflation forecasts based on real-time output gaps.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 855 Sherbrooke St. W., Montréal, Québec, H3A 2T7|
Phone: (514) 398-3030
Fax: (514) 398-4938
Web page: http://www.repec.mcgill.ca
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2003.
"The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
- Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 4830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2004. "The reliability of inflation forecasts based on output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-68, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Casillas-Olvera, Gabriel & Bessler, David A., 2006. "Probability forecasting and central bank accountability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 223-234, February.
- John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007.
"Forecast Content And Content Horizons For Some Important Macroeconomic Time Series,"
Departmental Working Papers
2007-01, McGill University, Department of Economics.
- John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "Forecast content and content horizons for some important macroeconomic time series," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 935-953, August.
- Linton, O. & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2007. "The quantilogram: With an application to evaluating directional predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 250-282, November.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2005.
"Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets or Surveys Forecast Inflation Better?,"
NBER Working Papers
11538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2006. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999.
"The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time,"
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The reliability of output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon Van_Norden, 2000. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0768, Econometric Society.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-57, CIRANO.
- Enno Mammen, .
"Comparing nonparametric versus parametric regression fits,"
Statistic und Oekonometrie
9205, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
- Hardle, W. & Mammen, E., 1990. "Comparing nonparametric versus parametric regression fits," CORE Discussion Papers 1990065, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
- Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999.
"A real-time data set for marcoeconomists: does the data vintage matter?,"
99-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2003. "A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists: Does the Data Vintage Matter?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 605-617, August.
- Tilmann Gneiting & Fadoua Balabdaoui & Adrian E. Raftery, 2007. "Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(2), pages 243-268.
- Pagan,Adrian & Ullah,Aman, 1999.
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521355643, Junio.
- Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2009.
"Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 492-503.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2007. "Forecasting recessions: the puzzle of the enduring power of the yield curve," Working Paper Series 2007-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1989.
"Scoring the Leading Indicators,"
The Journal of Business,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 369-91, July.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Lahiri, Kajal & Wang, J. George, 2013. "Evaluating probability forecasts for GDP declines using alternative methodologies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 175-190.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcl:mclwop:2008-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shama Rangwala)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.