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The Effects of the Subprime Crisis on the Latin American Financial Markets: An Empirical Assessment

Author

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  • Gilles Dufrénot

    () (DEFI - Centre de recherche en développement économique et finance internationale - GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille)

  • Valérie Mignon

    () (CEPII - Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales)

  • Anne Peguin-Feissolle

    () (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille)

Abstract

The aim of this article is to answer the following question: can the considerable rise in the volatility of the LAC stock markets in the aftermath of the 2007/2008 crisis be explained by the worsening financial environment in the US markets? To this end, we rely on a time-varying transition probability Markov-switching model, in which "crisis" and "non-crisis" periods are identified endogenously. Using daily data from January 2004 to April 2009, our findings do not validate the "financial decoupling" hypothesis since we show that the financial stress in the US markets is transmitted to the LAC's stock market volatility, especially in Mexico.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Dufrénot & Valérie Mignon & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2011. "The Effects of the Subprime Crisis on the Latin American Financial Markets: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers halshs-00587460, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00587460 Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00587460
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Choudhry, Taufiq & Jayasekera, Ranadeva, 2014. "Returns and volatility spillover in the European banking industry during global financial crisis: Flight to perceived quality or contagion?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 36-45.
    2. Marcelo Brutti Righi & Paulo Sérgio Ceretta, 2011. "Estimating value at risk and optimal hedge ratio in Latin markets: a copula-based GARCH approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1717-1730.
    3. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hunter, John & Menla Ali, Faek, 2014. "On the linkages between stock prices and exchange rates: Evidence from the banking crisis of 2007–2010," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 87-103.
    4. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Ahmed Khalifa, 2013. "Do Global Shocks Drive Investor Herds in Oil-Rich Frontier Markets?," Working Papers 819, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2013.
    5. MERIC Ilhan & NYGREN Lan Ma & BENTLEY Jerome T & McCALL Charles W, 2015. "Co-Movements Of U.S. And European Stock Markets Before And After The 2008 Gloal Stock Market Crash," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 10(2), pages 83-98, August.
    6. Irfan Akbar Kazi & Hakimzadi Wagan, 2014. "Are emerging markets exposed to contagion from U.S.: Evidence from stock and sovereign bond markets," Working Papers 2014-58, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    7. Fernanda G Barba & Paulo S Ceretta, 2011. "Risk transmission between Latin America stock markets and the US: impacts of the 2007/2008 Crisis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1025-1037.
    8. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:141-152 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Jae-Kwang Hwang, 2014. "Spillover Effects of the 2008 Financial Crisis in Latin America Stock Markets," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(3), pages 311-324, August.
    10. Chkili, Walid & Aloui, Chaker & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Instabilities in the relationships and hedging strategies between crude oil and US stock markets: Do long memory and asymmetry matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 354-366.
    11. Dufrénot, Gilles & Keddad, Benjamin, 2014. "Spillover effects of the 2008 global financial crisis on the volatility of the Indian equity markets: Coupling or uncoupling? A study on sector-based data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 17-32.
    12. repec:cml:moneta:v:xxxviii:y:2016:i:1:p:1-43 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Do, Hung Xuan & Brooks, Robert & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon, 2015. "Realized spill-over effects between stock and foreign exchange market: Evidence from regional analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 24-37.
    14. repec:kap:iaecre:v:20:y:2014:i:3:p:311-324 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-549 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Edgardo Cayón, 2014. "The Effects of Contagion During the Global Financial Crisis in Government-Regulated and Sponsored Assets in Emerging Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 30.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock markets; volatility; financial stress; regime-switching; Markov-switching model;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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