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Exchange Rate Determination In Pakistan: Evidence Based On Purchasing Power Parity Theory

  • Khan, Muhammad Arshad
  • Qayyum, Abdul

This paper presents the empirical evidence on purchasing power parity (PPP) for Pak-rupee vis-à-vis US-dollar exchange rate using Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) multivariate cointegration and bound testing approach to cointegration (Pesaran et al., 2001) over the period 1982Q2-2005Q4. We find a considerable support for the existence of long-run PPP. Furthermore, the results of error-correction suggest that nominal exchange rate plays an important role in eliminating deviations from long-run PPP. The results further suggest that there is high degree of foreign exchange and goods markets integration. One major policy implication derived from the findings of this study is that the monetary authorities should contain money supply growth in order to stabilize prices and reduce balance of payments deficits.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 6754.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Publication status: Published in Pakistan Economic and Social Review 2.44(2007): pp. 181-202
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6754
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  1. Boyd, Derick & Smith, Ron, 1999. "Testing for Purchasing Power Parity: Econometric Issues and an Application to Developing Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(3), pages 287-303, June.
  2. Sean Becketti & Craig S. Hakkio & Douglas H. Joines, 1995. "Exchange rates in the long run," Research Working Paper 95-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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  6. Steven A. Symansky & Peter B. Clark & Leonardo Bartolini & Tamim Bayoumi, 1994. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: A Framework for Analysis," IMF Occasional Papers 115, International Monetary Fund.
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  8. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  9. Hakkio, Craig S., 1984. "A re-examination of purchasing power parity : A multi-country and multi-period study," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 265-277, November.
  10. Abdul Qayyum & Muhammad Arshad Khan & Khair-U-Zaman, 2004. "Exchange Rate Misalignment in Pakistan: Evidence from Purchasing Power Parity Theory," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 721-735.
  11. Razzaque H. Bhatti, 1996. "A Correct Test of Purchasing Power Parity: The Case of Pak-Rupee Exchange Rates," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 671-682.
  12. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  13. Chien-Chung Nieh & Yu-Shan Wang, 2005. "ARDL Approach to the Exchange Rate Overshooting in Taiwan," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 55-71, August.
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  15. M. Faizul Islam & Mohammad S. Hasan, 2006. "The Monetary Model of the Dollar-Yen Exchange Rate Determination: A Cointegration Approach," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 5(2), pages 129-145, August.
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  17. Ardeni, Pier Giorgio & Lubian, Diego, 1991. "Is there trend reversion in purchasing power parity?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1035-1055, July.
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  19. Patel, Jayendu, 1990. "Purchasing Power Parity as a Long-Run Relation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 367-79, Oct.-Dec..
  20. John Cooper, 1994. "Purchasing power parity: a cointegration analysis of the Australian, New Zealand and Singaporean currencies," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(10), pages 167-171.
  21. Salim Chishti & M. Aynul Hasan, 1993. "What Determines the Behaviour of Real Exchange Rate in Pakistan?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 1015-1029.
  22. Genberg, Hans, 1978. "Purchasing power parity under fixed and flexible exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 247-276, May.
  23. Corbae, Dean & Ouliaris, Sam, 1988. "Cointegration and Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 508-11, August.
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  25. Pippenger, Michael K., 1993. "Cointegration tests of purchasing power parity: the case of Swiss exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 46-61, February.
  26. Levi, Maurice D., 1977. "Measurement errors and bounded OLS estimates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 165-171, September.
  27. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  28. Crowder, William J., 1992. "Purchasing power parity over the modern float An application in higher order cointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 313-318, November.
  29. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September.
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