Does asymmetric information play a role in explaining the Asian crisis? Application to Indonesian and Malaysian cases using a two-state Markov Switching model
This paper aims at establishing a relationship between disparity of information and the probability of speculative attack in explaining the Asian crisis. We apply the general framework of Markov-Switching models to the differential of interest rates (DIR), subsequently in Indonesia and Malaysia. We allow dependency of the transition probabilities over the asymmetric information indicators. The Maximum Likelihood estimators results (MLE) are twofold: (1) an increase of information dispersion among speculators leads to a higher probability of a currency crisis (2) there is a significant asymmetric impact of information disparity as measured by the difference between fund price and Net Asset Value (NAV) on the transition probability in the case of Indonesia, while the hypothesis is rejected for Malaysia's case.
Volume (Year): 31 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1997.
"Country Funds and Asymmetric Information,"
Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series
qt2791c3wm, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel and Sergio L. Schmukler., 1997. "Country Funds and Asymmetric Information," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C97-087, University of California at Berkeley.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1998. "Country funds and asymmetric information," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1886, The World Bank.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1998. "Country Funds and Asymmetric Information," International Finance 9805003, EconWPA.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel and Sergio L. Shmukler., 1996.
"Country Fund Discounts, Asymmetric Information and the Mexican Crisis of 1994: Did Local Residents Turn Pessimistic Before International Investors?,"
Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers
C96-067, University of California at Berkeley.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1996. "Country Fund Discounts, Asymmetric Information and the Mexican Crisis of 1994: Did Local Residents Turn Pessimistic Before International Investors?," NBER Working Papers 5714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
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