IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-10-00738.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does asymmetric information play a role in explaining the Asian crisis? Application to Indonesian and Malaysian cases using a two-state Markov Switching model

Author

Listed:
  • Emna Trabelsi

    (Institut Supérieur de Gestion de Tunis)

Abstract

This paper aims at establishing a relationship between disparity of information and the probability of speculative attack in explaining the Asian crisis. We apply the general framework of Markov-Switching models to the differential of interest rates (DIR), subsequently in Indonesia and Malaysia. We allow dependency of the transition probabilities over the asymmetric information indicators. The Maximum Likelihood estimators results (MLE) are twofold: (1) an increase of information dispersion among speculators leads to a higher probability of a currency crisis (2) there is a significant asymmetric impact of information disparity as measured by the difference between fund price and Net Asset Value (NAV) on the transition probability in the case of Indonesia, while the hypothesis is rejected for Malaysia's case.

Suggested Citation

  • Emna Trabelsi, 2011. "Does asymmetric information play a role in explaining the Asian crisis? Application to Indonesian and Malaysian cases using a two-state Markov Switching model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 560-571.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-10-00738
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2011/Volume31/EB-11-V31-I1-P54.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler, 1996. "Country fund discounts and the mexican crisis of December 1994: Did local residents turn pessimistic before international investors?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 511-534, March.
    2. Tsai, Pei-Jung, 2010. "Country funds and the role of international equity flows in pricing and in premiums and discounts," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 43-70.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Schmukler, Sergio L, 2000. "Country Funds and Asymmetric Information," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(3), pages 177-195, July.
    4. Francis X. Diebold & Joon-Haeng Lee & Gretchen C. Weinbach, 1993. "Regime switching with time-varying transition probabilities," Working Papers 93-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1996. "Country Fund Discounts, Asymmetric Information and the Mexican Crisis of 1994: Did Local Residents Turn Pessimistic Before International Investors?," NBER Working Papers 5714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    7. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stylianos X. Koufadakis, 2016. "Mispricing Explanations of Closed-End Funds: A Survey Review," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(1-2), pages 108-135, January-J.
    2. Andrade, Sandro C. & Kohlscheen, Emanuel, 2010. "Pessimistic Foreign Investors and Turmoil in Emerging Markets : The Case of Brazil in 2002," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 926, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    3. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
    4. Lizarazo, Sandra Valentina, 2013. "Default risk and risk averse international investors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 317-330.
    5. Cohen, Benjamin H. & Remolona, Eli M., 2008. "Information flows during the Asian crisis: Evidence from closed-end funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 636-653, June.
    6. Ghysels, E., 1993. "A Time Series Model with Periodic Stochastic Regime Switching," Cahiers de recherche 9314, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    7. Andrew Stuart Duncan & Guangling“dave” Liu, 2009. "Modelling South African Currency Crises As Structural Changes In The Volatility Of The Rand," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(3), pages 363-379, September.
    8. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
    9. Michael Frenkel & Lukas Menkhoff, 2004. "Are Foreign Institutional Investors Good for Emerging Markets?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1275-1293, August.
    10. Gross, Marco & Binder, Michael, 2013. "Regime-switching global vector autoregressive models," Working Paper Series 1569, European Central Bank.
    11. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
    12. Iuliana Ismailescu, 2008. "Determinants of the Time-Variation in Emerging-Market Closed-End Fund Premiums: A Comparison between Equity and Bond Funds," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 52(2), pages 54-64, October.
    13. Emine Boz, 2005. "Do Miracles Lead to Crises?: An Informational Frictions Explanation to Emerging Market Financial Crises," 2005 Meeting Papers 496, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Kerekes, Monika, 2009. "Growth miracles and failures in a Markov switching classification model of growth," Discussion Papers 2009/11, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    15. Daly, Kevin & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2013. "The determinants of home bias puzzle in equity portfolio investment in Australia," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 34-42.
    16. Laurent Calvet & Adlai Fisher, 2003. "Regime-Switching and the Estimation of Multifractal Processes," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1999, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    17. Abbigail J. Chiodo & Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "Duration dependence in monetary policy: international evidence," Working Papers 2002-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    18. Kim, Woochan & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2002. "Offshore investment funds: monsters in emerging markets?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 205-224, June.
    19. Andrew J. Holliday & Gregory P. Hopper, 1996. "Are there regimes of antitrust enforcement? An empirical analysis," Working Papers 96-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    20. Haase, Felix & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2023. "Predictability of bull and bear markets: A new look at forecasting stock market regimes (and returns) in the US," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 587-605.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Speculative attack; Global Games; Asymmetric information; Markov-Switching Models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-10-00738. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.