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What accounts for the postwar decline in economic volatility?

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  • Keith Sill

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

Abstract

Finally, we look at the broader picture to determine why the U.S. economy has had fewer and shorter recessions over the past 20 years. Over time, swings in the growth of many macroeconomic variables, such as gross domestic product, have become smaller. Why this decline in economic volatility? In \\"What Accounts for the Postwar Decline in Economic Volatility?\\" Keith Sill highlights some of the facts about the increased stability of the U.S. economy and assesses the contribution of policy and other factors to the decline in volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Keith Sill, 2004. "What accounts for the postwar decline in economic volatility?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue q1, pages 23-31.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpbr:y:2004:i:q1:p:23-31
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    File URL: http://www.phil.frb.org/files/br/brq104ks.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
    3. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue may, pages 183-202.
    4. Keith Sill & Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina, 2003. "Postwar period changes in employment volatility: new evidence from state/industry panel data," Working Papers 03-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, revised 2003.
    5. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Kent & Kylie Smith & James Holloway, 2005. "Declining Output Volatility: What Role for Structural Change?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.

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    Keywords

    Recessions;

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