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The Inexorable Recoveries of Unemployment

Author

Listed:
  • Robert E. Hall
  • Marianna Kudlyak

Abstract

Unemployment recoveries in the US have been inexorable. Between 1948 and 2019, the annual reduction in the unemployment rate during cyclical recoveries was fairly tightly distributed around 0.1 log points per year. The economy seems to have an irresistible force toward restoring full employment. In the aftermath of a recession, unless another crisis intervenes, unemployment continues to glide down. Occasionally, unemployment rises rapidly during an economic crisis, while most of the time, unemployment declines slowly and smoothly at a near-constant proportional rate. We show that similar properties hold for other measures of the US unemployment rate and for the unemployment rates of many other emerging and advanced countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert E. Hall & Marianna Kudlyak, 2020. "The Inexorable Recoveries of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 28111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28111
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Romer & Roberto Samaniego & Remi Jedwab & Asif M. Islam, 2025. "Scars of pandemics from lost schooling and experience: aggregate implications and gender differences through the lens of COVID-19," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 1-47, March.
    2. Hall, Robert E. & Kudlyak, Marianna, 2022. "The unemployed with jobs and without jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Mark W. Watson, 2025. "Comment on "Tradeoffs and Sacrifice over Rate Cycles: Activity, Inflation and the Price Level" 2," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2025, volume 40, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Andrew Fieldhouse & Sean Howard & Mr. Christoffer Koch & David Munro, 2022. "A New Claims-Based Unemployment Dataset: Application to Postwar Recoveries Across U.S. States," IMF Working Papers 2022/117, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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