Scars of Pandemics from Lost Schooling and Experience : Aggregate Implications and Gender DifferencesThrough the Lens of COVID-19

Pandemic shocks disrupt human capital accumulation through schooling and work experience. Thisstudy quantifies the long-term economic impact of these disruptions in the case of COVID-19, focusing on countriesat different levels of development and using returns to education and experience by college status that are globallyestimated using 1,084 household surveys across 145 countries. The results show that both lost schooling andexperience contribute to significant losses in global learning and output. Developed countries incur greaterlosses than developing countries, because they have more schooling to start with and higher returns to experience.The returns to education and experience are also separately estimated for men and women, to explore the differentialeffects by gender of the COVID-19 pandemic. Surprisingly, while the study uncovers gender differences in returns toeducation and schooling, gender differences in the impact of COVID-19 are small and short-lived, with a loss in femalerelative income of only 2.5 percent or less, mainly due to the greater severity of the employment shock on impact.These findings might challenge some of the ongoing narratives in policy circles. The methodology employed in this study is easily implementable for future pandemics.