The Consumption Terms of Trade and Commodity Prices
In: Commodity Prices and Markets, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 20
Movements in a nation's terms of trade are widely viewed as important for the understanding the sources of business cycle fluctuations, the dynamics of the trade balance and economic welfare. Backus, Kehoe and Kydland (1994) emphasize the role of productivity movements in a two-country, two-good setting. In their model an increase in domestic productivity expands out- put at home relative to output abroad and the terms of trade deteriorates. Put differently: a large country expanding the supply of the traded good it produces must (in equilibrium) drive down the relative price of its prod- ucts on world markets. The importing country's terms of trade improves, a positive spillover. Backus and Crucini (2000) add a third region to this model; a region that specializes in oil production. When the oil region cuts back production, the relative price of oil rises, a terms of trade improvement for oil producers. Output falls in the oil importing regions because oil is an intermediate input into production of the two manufactured goods produced in those regions. The business cycle implications of this model are consis- tent with empirical work by Hamilton (1983) showing oil price increases in advance of U.S. recessions. Mendoza (1995) studies the terms of trade and business cycles in an extensive cross-country panel using a partial equilibrium business cycle model where terms of trade movements are exogenous. In his theoretical setting, terms of trade shocks are analogous to lotteries with the sign and magnitude of the payout dependent upon a country's pattern of specialization across an array of internationally traded goods.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|This chapter was published in: ||This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number
11871.||Handle:|| RePEc:nbr:nberch:11871||Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rogers, John H., 2007. "Monetary union, price level convergence, and inflation: How close is Europe to the USA?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 785-796, April.
- David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992.
"Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the S-curve,"
9211, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
- David Backus & Patrick Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "DOS executable for "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?"," QM&RBC Codes 5, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The S-Curve," NBER Working Papers 4242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David Backus & Patrick Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Web interface for "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?"," QM&RBC Codes 5a, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February.
- Frankel, Jeffrey & Parsley, David & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2005.
"Slow Passthrough Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?,"
Working Paper Series
rwp05-016, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Jeffrey Frankel & David Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 213-251, April.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Wei, Shang-jin & Parsley, David, 2012. "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Scholarly Articles 10494212, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & David C. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "Slow Passthrough Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," NBER Working Papers 11199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yael S. Hadass & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001.
"Terms of Trade Shocks and Economic Performance 1870-1940: Prebisch and Singer Revisited,"
NBER Working Papers
8188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hadass, Yael S & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 2003. "Terms-of-Trade Shocks and Economic Performance, 1870-1940: Prebisch and Singer Revisited," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 629-56, April.
- Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
- David K. Backus & Mario J. Crucini, 1998.
"Oil Prices and the Terms of Trade,"
NBER Working Papers
6697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:11871. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.