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The roles of the public sector and the private sector in the economy of North Cyprus: Empirical evidence from Markov Switching

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  • Tursoy, Turgut

Abstract

This paper purpose is to examine the regime shift of public sector and private sector investments on economic growth in North Cyprus using with the Markov Switching Regression technique for the period from the first quarter of the year 1982 to the last quarter of the year of 2015. Both sector investments having a causal effect on the economic growth at the concerned period and method provide the necessary evidence for the regime shifts. Two-regime (growth path/recession path) model has been estimated to analyse the Markov-switching model, Markov transition probabilities, constant expected durations, and smoothed regime probabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Tursoy, Turgut, 2018. "The roles of the public sector and the private sector in the economy of North Cyprus: Empirical evidence from Markov Switching," MPRA Paper 87729, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:87729
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fong, Wai Mun & See, Kim Hock, 2002. "A Markov switching model of the conditional volatility of crude oil futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 71-95, January.
    2. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
    3. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January.
    4. Sims, Christopher A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2008. "Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 255-274, October.
    5. Maddala, G.S., 1986. "Disequilibrium, self-selection, and switching models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1633-1688, Elsevier.
    6. Kim, Chang-Jin & Piger, Jeremy & Startz, Richard, 2008. "Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 263-273, April.
    7. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public Sector; Private Sector; Economic Growth; Crises; Markov Switching.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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