IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ers/journl/vxiiiy2010i1p129-142.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Á GARCH Examination of Macroeconomic Effects on U.S. Stock Market: A Distinction Between the Total Market Index and the Sustainability Index

Author

Listed:
  • Nikolaos SARIANNIDIS
  • Grigoris GIANNARAKIS
  • Nicolaos LITINAS
  • George KONTEOS

Abstract

The paper examines the impact of several macroeconomic variables on the Dow Jones Sustainability and Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 indexes, using a GARCH model and monthly data for the period January, 2000 to January, 2008. The results show that changes in returns of crude oil prices affect negatively the U.S. stock market, contrary to changes in returns of the 10-year bond value that affect it positively. Both economic indicators influence the DJSI with a month delay. Also, the exchange rate volatility affects negatively the returns of the U.S. stock market and the non-farm payroll can be characterised as a stabilising factor for the DJSI.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos SARIANNIDIS & Grigoris GIANNARAKIS & Nicolaos LITINAS & George KONTEOS, 2010. "Á GARCH Examination of Macroeconomic Effects on U.S. Stock Market: A Distinction Between the Total Market Index and the Sustainability Index," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 129-142.
  • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xiii:y:2010:i:1:p:129-142
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ersj.eu/repec/ers/papers/10_1_p9.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hyde, Stuart J, 2007. "The response of industry stock returns to market, exchange rate and interest rate risks," MPRA Paper 9679, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bartram, Sohnke M., 2004. "Linear and nonlinear foreign exchange rate exposures of German nonfinancial corporations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 673-699, June.
    3. Aristeidis G. Samitas & Dimitris F. Kenourgios, 2007. "Macroeconomic factors' influence on 'new' European countries' stock returns: the case of four transition economies," International Journal of Financial Services Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(1/2), pages 34-49.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    5. Roger D. Huang & Ronald W. Masulis & Hans R. Stoll, 1996. "Energy shocks and financial markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, February.
    6. Maghyereh, A., 2004. "Oil Price Shocks and Emerging Stock Markets: A Generalized VAR Approach," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(2), pages 27-40.
    7. Stephen Brammer & Chris Brooks & Stephen Pavelin, 2006. "Corporate Social Performance and Stock Returns: UK Evidence from Disaggregate Measures," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 97-116, September.
    8. Bodnar, Gordon M. & Gentry, William M., 1993. "Exchange rate exposure and industry characteristics: evidence from Canada, Japan, and the USA," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 29-45, February.
    9. Elyasiani, Elyas & Mansur, Iqbal, 1998. "Sensitivity of the bank stock returns distribution to changes in the level and volatility of interest rate: A GARCH-M model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 535-563, May.
    10. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    11. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    12. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    13. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
    14. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. "Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-491, June.
    15. Brian Lucey, Ali Nejadmalayeri and Manohar Singh, 2008. "Impact of US Macroeconomic Surprises on Stock Market Returns in Developed Economies," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp240, IIIS.
    16. Brown, Stephen P. A. & Yucel, Mine K., 2002. "Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 193-208.
    17. Bartov, Eli & Bodnar, Gordon M, 1994. "Firm Valuation, Earnings Expectations, and the Exchange-Rate Exposure Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1755-1785, December.
    18. Chao Wei, 2003. "Energy, the Stock Market, and the Putty-Clay Investment Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 311-323, March.
    19. Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "The Exchange-Rate Exposure of U.S. Multinationals," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 331-345, July.
    20. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1998. "Deutsche Mark-Dollar Volatility: Intraday Activity Patterns, Macroeconomic Announcements, and Longer Run Dependencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 219-265, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Emmanuel Lawal & Gökan May & Bojan Stahl, 2017. "The Significance of Corporate Social Disclosure for High‐Tech Manufacturing Companies: Focus on Employee and Community Aspects of Sustainable Development," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(4), pages 295-311, July.
    2. Estefanía Montoya-Cruz & José Pedro Ramos-Requena & Juan Evangelista Trinidad-Segovia & Miguel Ángel Sánchez-Granero, 2020. "Exploring Arbitrage Strategies in Corporate Social Responsibility Companies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-17, August.
    3. Li‐Kai Liao & Yu‐Wei Fan & Ming‐Hsin Shih, 2020. "What drives social responsibility indices returns? Macroeconomics matters," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(2), pages 514-524, March.
    4. Kylie de Klerk & Favil Singh, 2023. "Does Gender and Cultural Diversity Matter for Sustainability in Healthcare? Evidence from Global Organizations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-17, July.
    5. Neenu. C & T Mohamed Nishad, 2021. "Carbon Reduction and Sustainable Investment: A Way to Sustainable Development," Energy Economics Letters, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(2), pages 134-144, December.
    6. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Ibrahim D. Raheem & Seref Bozoklu & Shawkat Hammoudeh, 2022. "The Oil Price‐Macroeconomic fundamentals nexus for emerging market economies: Evidence from a wavelet analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1569-1590, January.
    7. Kae‐Yih Tzeng, 2023. "The ability of U.S. macroeconomic variables to predict Asian financial market returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3529-3551, October.
    8. Parul Bhatia & Priya Gupta, 2020. "Sub-prime Crisis or COVID-19: A Comparative Analysis of Volatility in Indian Banking Sectoral Indices," FIIB Business Review, , vol. 9(4), pages 286-299, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. Suliman Zakaria S. Abdalla, 2014. "The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Sudanese Stock Market Performance," Working Papers 887, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2014.
    3. Nevi Danila & Bunyamin & Ahmad Djalaluddin & Yudha Fathony, 2023. "Do Foreign Fund Flows Influence the Stock Market Index? Evidence From Indonesia," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, October.
    4. Tsai, Chun-Li, 2015. "How do U.S. stock returns respond differently to oil price shocks pre-crisis, within the financial crisis, and post-crisis?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 47-62.
    5. Singhal, Shelly & Ghosh, Sajal, 2016. "Returns and volatility linkages between international crude oil price, metal and other stock indices in India: Evidence from VAR-DCC-GARCH models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 276-288.
    6. Nikolaos Sariannidis & Grigoris Giannarakis & Eleni Zafeiriou & Ioannis Billias, 2016. "The Effect of Crude Oil Price Moments on Socially Responsible Firms in Eurozone," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 356-363.
    7. Fatema Alaali, 2017. "Analysing the Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Asset Prices: Evidence from UK Firms," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 418-432.
    8. McMillan, David G. & Ziadat, Salem Adel & Herbst, Patrick, 2021. "The role of oil as a determinant of stock market interdependence: The case of the USA and GCC," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    9. Berna Aydoğan & Gökçe Tunç & Tezer Yelkenci, 2017. "The impact of oil price volatility on net-oil exporter and importer countries’ stock markets," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(2), pages 231-253, August.
    10. Alaali, Fatema, 2017. "Analysing the Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Asset Prices: evidence from UK firms," MPRA Paper 78013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    12. Shaeri, Komeil & Adaoglu, Cahit & Katircioglu, Salih T., 2016. "Oil price risk exposure: A comparison of financial and non-financial subsectors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 712-723.
    13. Anand, B. & Paul, Sunil & Ramachandran, M., 2014. "Volatility Spillover between Oil and Stock Market Returns," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 49(1), pages 37-56.
    14. Asteriou, Dimitrios & Bashmakova, Yuliya, 2013. "Assessing the impact of oil returns on emerging stock markets: A panel data approach for ten Central and Eastern European Countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 204-211.
    15. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2015. "Stock return forecasting: Some new evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 38-51.
    16. Zhu, Huiming & Huang, Hui & Peng, Cheng & Yang, Yan, 2016. "Extreme dependence between crude oil and stock markets in Asia-Pacific regions: Evidence from quantile regression," Economics Discussion Papers 2016-46, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Puah, Chin-Hong & Tan, Lay-Phin & Md Isa, Abu Hassan, 2009. "Nexus between Oil Price and Stock Performance of Power Industry in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 31757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Broadstock, David C. & Cao, Hong & Zhang, Dayong, 2012. "Oil shocks and their impact on energy related stocks in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1888-1895.
    19. Mushtaq Hussain Khan & Junaid Ahmed & Mazhar Mughal & Imtiaz Hussain Khan, 2023. "Oil price volatility and stock returns: Evidence from three oil‐price wars," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3162-3182, July.
    20. Sim, Nicholas & Zhou, Hongtao, 2015. "Oil prices, US stock return, and the dependence between their quantiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-8.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Corporate Social Responsibility; Dow Jones Sustainability Index; GARCH; macroeconomic indicators;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xiii:y:2010:i:1:p:129-142. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marios Agiomavritis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://ersj.eu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.