Why U.S. Money does not Cause U.S. Output, but does Cause Hong Kong Output
Standard econometric tests for whether money causes output will be meaningless if monetary policy is chosen optimally to smooth fluctuations in output. If U.S. monetary policy were chosen to smooth U.S. output, we show that U.S. money will not Granger cause U.S. output. Indeed, as shown by Rowe and Yetman (2000), if there is a (say) 6 quarter lag in the e¤ect of money on output, then U.S. output will be unforecastable from any information set available to the Fed lagged 6 quarters. But if other countries, for example Hong Kong, have currencies that are fixed to the U.S. dollar, Hong Kong monetary policy will then be chosen in Washington D.C., with no concern for smoothing Hong Kong output. Econometric causality tests of U.S. money on Hong Kong output will then show evidence of causality. We test this empirically. Our empirical analysis also provides a measure of the degree to which macroeconomic stabilisation is sacrificed by adopting a fixed exchange rate rather than an independent monetary policy.
|Date of creation:||2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (613) 562-5753
Fax: (613) 562-5999
Web page: http://www.socialsciences.uottawa.ca/eco/eng/index.asp
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Lakdawalla, Darius & Sood, Neeraj, 2004. "Social insurance and the design of innovation incentives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 57-61, October.
- Ekholm, Karolina & Torstensson, Johan, 1996.
"High-Technology Subsidies in General Equilibrium: A Sector-Specific Approach,"
Working Paper Series
467, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
- Karolina Ekholm & Johan Torstensson, 1997. "High-Technology Subsidies in General Equilibrium: A Sector-Specific Approach," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1184-1203, November.
- Bernd Hayo, 1998.
"Money-Output Granger Causality Revisited: An Empirical Analysis of EU Countries,"
- Bernd Hayo, 1999. "Money-output Granger causality revisited: an empirical analysis of EU countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1489-1501.
- Hayo, Bernd, 1998. "Money-output Granger causality revisited: An empirical analysis of EU countries," ZEI Working Papers B 08-1998, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
- Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994.
"When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?,"
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997. "When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-53, July.
- Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," International Finance Discussion Papers 462, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991.
"Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots,"
360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Petrakis, Emmanuel & Poyago-Theotoky, Joanna, 2002. "R&D Subsidies versus R&D Cooperation in a Duopoly with Spillovers and Pollution," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 37-52, March.
- Choudhri, Ehsan U & Kochin, Levis A, 1980. "The Exchange Rate and the International Transmission of Business Cycle Disturbances: Some Evidence from the Great Depression," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 565-74, November.
- Isabel Busom, 2000. "An Empirical Evaluation of The Effects of R&D Subsidies," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 111-148.
- Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999.
"Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics,
in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Klette, T.J. & Moen, J. & Griliches, Z., 1999. "Do Subsidies to Commercial R&D Reduce Market Failures? Microeconometric Evaluation Studies," Papers 16/99, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
- Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer., 1989.
"Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz,"
Economics Working Papers
89-107, University of California at Berkeley.
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Romer, Christina D. & Romer, David H., 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5h07k8vf, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Working Papers 2966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin, Stephen & Scott, John T., 2000.
"The nature of innovation market failure and the design of public support for private innovation,"
Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 437-447, April.
- Stephen Martin & John T. Scott, 1999. "The Nature of Innovation Market Failure and the Design of Public Support for Private Innovation," CIE Discussion Papers 1999-02, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Industrial Economics.
- Ahmed M. Khalid & Teo Wee Guan, 1999. "Causality tests of budget and current account deficits: Cross-country comparisons," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 389-402.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
- Bernanke, Ben S, 1995.
"The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 1-28, February.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1994. "The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach," NBER Working Papers 4814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Minoru Kitahara & Toshihiro Matsumura, 2006. "Realized Cost-Based Subsidies For Strategic R&D Investments With "Ex Ante" And "Ex Post" Asymmetries," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(3), pages 438-448.
- Miyagiwa, Kaz & Ohno, Yuka, 2002. "Uncertainty, spillovers, and cooperative R&D," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 855-876, June.
- Nicholas Rowe & James Yetman, 2002. "Identifying a policymaker's target: an application to the Bank of Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 239-256, May.
- Maddala,G. S. & Kim,In-Moo, 1999. "Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Structural Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521587822, October.
- C. Michael Wernerheim, 2000. "Cointegration and causality in the exports-GDP nexus: The post-war evidence for Canada," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 111-125.
- Rowe, Nicholas & Yetman, James, 2000. "Identifying Policy-makers' Objectives: An Application to the Bank of Canada," Working Papers 00-11, Bank of Canada.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- James D. Hamilton, 1988. "Role Of The International Gold Standard In Propagating The Great Depression," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 6(2), pages 67-89, 04.
- Eichengreen, Barry, 1984. "Central bank cooperation under the interwar gold standard," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 64-87, January.
- Poyago-Theotoky, Joanna, 1998. "R&D Competition in a Mixed Duopoly under Uncertainty and Easy Imitation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 415-428, September.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ott:wpaper:0201e. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diane Ritchot)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.