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Exchange Rates and Asset Prices: Heterogeneous Agents at Work

  • Giulia Piccillo

This paper merges two branches of the literature. On one hand we study a heterogeneous agents framework to model exchange rates and stock prices. On the other hand we model the relationship between these two series through a DSGE model. Investors choose one of two rules to form their expectations. One rule is based on an open economy model, which reacts to the information from the financial markets. The second rule follows a backward looking approach. We find that when DSGE agents misinterpret the information coming from the financial markets as exogenous productivity shocks they unknowingly amplify the volatility of these markets. The simulated series replicate the stylized facts of real data. We also estimate the DSGE and chartists expectations, and we find that our DSGE agents make output forecasts that are not qualitatively different than the DSGE forecasts from the recent Bayesian literature.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 4257.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4257
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  1. Kollmann, Robert, 2001. "Explaining international comovements of output and asset returns: The role of money and nominal rigidities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1547-1583, October.
  2. Volker Wieland & Maik Wolters, 2011. "The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the US economy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 247-292, June.
  3. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Kollmann, Robert Miguel W. K. & Martin, Philippe J., 2008. "International portfolios, capital accumulation and foreign assets dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,19, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  5. Bala Ramasamy & Matthew C.H. Yeung, 2005. "The Causality Between Stock Returns And Exchange Rates: Revisited," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 162-169, 06.
  6. Devereux, Michael B & Sutherland, Alan, 2006. "Solving for Country Portfolios in Open Economy Macro Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5966, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Giorgio Di Giorgio & Salvatore Nistico, 2007. "Monetary Policy and Stock Prices in an Open Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1947-1985, December.
  8. Sheng-Yung Yang & Shuh-Chyi Doong, 2004. "Price and Volatility Spillovers between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Empirical Evidence from the G-7 Countries," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 3(2), pages 139-153, August.
  9. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  10. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  11. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  12. Kurz, Mordecai & Piccillo, Giulia & Wu, Howei, 2013. "Modeling diverse expectations in an aggregated New Keynesian Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1403-1433.
  13. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
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