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Macroeconomic expectations and time varying heterogeneity:evidence from individual survey data

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  • Imane El Ouadghiri
  • Remzi Uctum

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to investigate forecast heterogeneity and time variability in the formation of expectations using disaggregated monthly survey data on macroeconomic indicators provided by Bloomberg from June 1998 to August 2017. We show that our panel of forecasters are not rational and are moderately heterogeneous and thus confirm that previously well-established results on asset prices hold for macroeconomic indicators. We propose a flexible hybrid forecast model defined at any time as a combination of the extrapolative, regressive, adaptive and interactive heuristics. Controlling for endogenous structural breaks, we find that experts adjust their forecast behaviour at any time with some inertia in extrapolative and adaptive profiles. Changes in the formation of expectations are triggered mostly by financial shocks, and uncertainty is dealt with by using complex processes in which the fundamentalist component overweighs chartist activity. Forecasters whose models combine different relevant rules and display high temporal flexibility provide the most accurate forecasts. Authorities can then stabilize the domestic markets by encouraging fundamentalists’ forecasts through increased transparency policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Imane El Ouadghiri & Remzi Uctum, 2020. "Macroeconomic expectations and time varying heterogeneity:evidence from individual survey data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(23), pages 2443-2459, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:52:y:2020:i:23:p:2443-2459
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1691713
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    Cited by:

    1. Cahen-Fourot, Louison & Campiglio, Emanuele & Daumas, Louis & Miess, Michael Gregor & Yardley, Andrew, 2023. "Stranding ahoy? Heterogeneous transition beliefs and capital investment choices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 535-567.
    2. Barda, Kelly, 2020. "Analyser la performance financière des indices boursiers environnementaux [Analyzing financial performance of green stock market indices]," MPRA Paper 102537, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mendiela, Pauline, 2021. "Information security breaches and financial market reaction: the French case," MPRA Paper 105029, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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