IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jfr/jms111/v7y2016i2p73-89.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of Speculation and Bubble Detection in Stock Markets: The Tunisian and the Moroccan Cases

Author

Listed:
  • Bassem Salhi
  • Saad Alflayyeh

Abstract

The past few years have seen an unprecedented increase in speculative activities. While the exact tools remain controversial, the negative impact is not doubtful. This thesis attempts to explain speculation, what it actually is and what it is not. In this paper we seek to identify periods of mildly explosive or bubble-like, behaviour of the Tunisian market during the period 2004 to 2014. We do so on one hand using STATA¡¯s rolling and recursive estimation techniques on the Tunisian stock market price index (TUNINDEX) then, we compare it to the Moroccan Index (MASI), On the other hand we apply the same testing procedure on 4 Big companies of the Tunisian market. These tests help detecting if prices deviate from a random walk and become mildly explosive since as stipulated above, the identification of explosive characteristics in the price is equivalent to the detection of stock bubble.

Suggested Citation

  • Bassem Salhi & Saad Alflayyeh, 2016. "Impact of Speculation and Bubble Detection in Stock Markets: The Tunisian and the Moroccan Cases," Journal of Management and Strategy, Journal of Management and Strategy, Sciedu Press, vol. 7(2), pages 73-89, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:jfr:jms111:v:7:y:2016:i:2:p:73-89
    DOI: 10.5430/jms.v7n2p73
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciedu.ca/journal/index.php/jms/article/view/9570/5798
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.sciedu.ca/journal/index.php/jms/article/view/9570
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5430/jms.v7n2p73?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-530, June.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
    3. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-930, September.
    4. Prachi Deuskar & Timothy C. Johnson, 2011. "Market Liquidity and Flow-driven Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 721-753.
    5. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-1214, December.
    6. Hamilton, James D. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1985. "The observable implications of self-fulfilling expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 353-373, November.
    7. J. Michael Harrison & David M. Kreps, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 92(2), pages 323-336.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Knight, John & Satchell, Stephen & Srivastava, Nandini, 2014. "Steady state distributions for models of locally explosive regimes: Existence and econometric implications," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 281-288.
    2. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Market fundamentals versus rational bubbles in stock prices: a Bayesian perspective," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 35-75.
    3. Efsun Kürüm & Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber & Cem Iyigun, 2018. "Early warning on stock market bubbles via methods of optimization, clustering and inverse problems," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 260(1), pages 293-320, January.
    4. Tolhurst, Tor N., 2018. "A Model-Free Bubble Detection Method: Application to the World Market for Superstar Wines," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274387, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis & Georgios Papapanagiotou, 2021. "Testing for exuberance in house prices using data sampled at different frequencies," Working Paper series 21-13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    6. Wilfredo L. Maldonado & Octávio A. F. Tourinho & Jorge A. B. M. de Abreu, 2014. "Cointegrated Periodically Collapsing Bubbles in the Exchange Rate of 'BRICS' Countries," CAMA Working Papers 2014-34, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Su-Ling TSAI & Hsien-Hung KUNG & Kai-yin Allison HAGA, 2015. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles in the 35 Large and Medium Cities of Real Estate Price in China," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(605), W), pages 275-290, Winter.
    8. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    9. David G. McMillan, 2010. "Present Value Model, Bubbles and Returns Predictability: Sector-Level Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5-6), pages 668-686.
    10. Vogel, Harold L. & Werner, Richard A., 2015. "An analytical review of volatility metrics for bubbles and crashes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 15-28.
    11. repec:agr:journl:v:4(605):y:2015:i:4(605):p:275-290 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Pavlidis, Efthymios G. & Vasilopoulos, Kostas, 2020. "Speculative bubbles in segmented markets: Evidence from Chinese cross-listed stocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    13. Gourieroux, C. & Jasiak, J. & Monfort, A., 2020. "Stationary bubble equilibria in rational expectation models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 714-735.
    14. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008. "Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, February.
    15. John Knight & Stephen Satchell & Nandini Srivastava, 2012. "Steady-State Distributions for Models of Bubbles: their Existence and Econometric Implications," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1208, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    16. Nunes, Maurício Simiano & da Silva, Sérgio, 2009. "Bolhas Racionais no Índice Bovespa," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 63(2), June.
    17. Drobyshevsky Sergey & Narkevich Sergey & E. Pikulina & D. Polevoy, 2009. "Analysis Of a Possible Bubble On the Russian Real Estate Market," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 128.
    18. Taipalus, Katja, 2006. "Bubbles in the Finnish and US equities markets," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 35/2006.
    19. Anderson, Keith & Brooks, Chris & Katsaris, Apostolos, 2010. "Speculative bubbles in the S&P 500: Was the tech bubble confined to the tech sector?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 345-361, June.
    20. Lux, Thomas & Sornette, Didier, 2002. "On Rational Bubbles and Fat Tails," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 589-610, August.
    21. repec:zbw:bofism:2012_047 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Sharma, Shahil & Escobari, Diego, 2018. "Identifying price bubble periods in the energy sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 418-429.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jfr:jms111:v:7:y:2016:i:2:p:73-89. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jenny Zhang (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://jms.sciedupress.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.