IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ayb/jrnerl/25.html

Crude Oil Prices and COVID-19 - Persistence of the Shock

Author

Listed:
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana
  • Manuel Monge

    (Asia Pacific Applied Economics Association)

Abstract

The effect of the COVID-19 crisis on crude oil prices is investigated by using long memory techniques. The oil price series is highly persistent with an order of integration of 0.84, displaying mean reversion. When we examine data before the onset of COVID-19, the first order integration hypothesis cannot be rejected. The results are consistent with evidence of market efficiency prior to the crisis, with the oil market becoming inefficient when incorporating the data covering the crisis. The evidence that oil price series is mean reverting implies that the shock will be transitory albeit with very long-lasting effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis A. Gil-Alana & Manuel Monge, 2021. "Crude Oil Prices and COVID-19 - Persistence of the Shock," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(1), pages 1-4.
    • Handle: RePEc:ayb:jrnerl:25
    DOI: 2021/06/16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://erl.scholasticahq.com/api/v1/articles/13200-crude-oil-prices-and-covid-19-persistence-of-the-shock.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/2021/06/16?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claudiu Albulescu, 2020. "Coronavirus and oil price crash," Papers 2003.06184, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    2. Bakas, Dimitrios & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2020. "Commodity price volatility and the economic uncertainty of pandemics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    3. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    4. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saeid Homayoun & Mohammad Ali Bagherpour Velashani & Bashaer Khdhair Abbas Alkhafaji & Siham Jabbar Mezher, 2023. "The Effect of COVID-19 on the Performance of SMEs in Emerging Markets in Iran, Iraq and Jordan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-14, May.
    2. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2022. "Tail risk connectedness in the refined petroleum market: A first look at the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    3. Jamiu Olamilekan Badmus & Sodiq Olaide Bisiriyu & Oluwadamilola Samuel Alawode, 2022. "Does COVID-19 shock endanger the flows of FDI in OECD? Empirical evidence based on AMG panel estimator," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Tian, Guangning & Peng, Yuchao & Meng, Yuhao, 2023. "Forecasting crude oil prices in the COVID-19 era: Can machine learn better?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vincent Brémond & Emmanuel Hache & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2016. "The Oil Price and Exchange Rate Relationship Revisited: A time-varying VAR parameter approach," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 13(1), pages 97-131, June.
    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Miller, Stephen M., 2015. "Regime switching model of US crude oil and stock market prices: 1859 to 2013," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 317-327.
    3. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Ben Naceur, Sami & Kanaan, Oussama & Rault, Christophe, 2021. "Investigating the asymmetric impact of oil prices on GCC stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    4. Emna Trabelsi, 2025. "Monetary Policy Under Global and Spillover Uncertainty Shocks: What Do the Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient VAR, Local Projections, and Vector Error Correction Model Tell Us in Tunisia?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-74, March.
    5. Waheed A. Banafea, 2014. "Structural Breaks and Causality Relationship between Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 726-734.
    6. Ikhlaas Gurrib & Firuz Kamalov & Elgilani E. Alshareif, 2022. "High Frequency Return and Risk Patterns in U.S. Sector ETFs during COVID-19," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 441-456, September.
    7. Hedi Ben Haddad & Imed Mezghani & Abdessalem Gouider, 2021. "The Dynamic Spillover Effects of Macroeconomic and Financial Uncertainty on Commodity Markets Uncertainties," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-22, June.
    8. Cavalcanti, Tiago & Jalles, João Tovar, 2013. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks in Brazil and in the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 475-486.
    9. repec:cii:cepiei:2012-q3-131-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2016. "Co-movement of international crude oil price and Indian stock market: Evidences from nonlinear cointegration tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 111-117.
    11. Liu, Wenwen & Chen, Xue, 2022. "Natural resources commodity prices volatility and economic uncertainty: Evaluating the role of oil and gas rents in COVID-19," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    12. Dan Zhang & Arash Farnoosh & Frédéric Lantz, 2022. "Does Something Change in the Oil Market with the COVID-19 Crisis ?," Post-Print hal-03601767, HAL.
    13. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Jun-De, 2009. "Energy prices, multiple structural breaks, and efficient market hypothesis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 466-479, April.
    14. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo, 2022. "The COVID-19 storm and the energy sector: The impact and role of uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    15. NIDHALEDDINE BEN CHEIKH & SAMI BEN NACEUR & OUSSAMA KANAAN & Christophe RAULT, 2019. "Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Vector Smooth Transition Models," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2697, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    16. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-553 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Mensi, Walid & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Asymmetric spillover and network connectedness between crude oil, gold, and Chinese sector stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    18. Hasanov, Mübariz & Telatar, Erdinc, 2011. "A re-examination of stationarity of energy consumption: Evidence from new unit root tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7726-7738.
    19. Schneider, Nicolas & Strielkowski, Wadim, 2023. "Modelling the unit root properties of electricity data—A general note on time-domain applications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 618(C).
    20. Theodosios Perifanis, 2019. "Detecting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Prices’ Bubble Periods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-16, July.
    21. Warr, B.S. & Ayres, R.U., 2010. "Evidence of causality between the quantity and quality of energy consumption and economic growth," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1688-1693.
    22. Cunado, Juncal & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2003. "Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence for some European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 137-154, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ayb:jrnerl:25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/apaeaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.