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Oil and gold: correlation or causation?

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  • Le, Thai-Ha
  • Chang, Youngho

Abstract

This study using the monthly data spanning 1986:01-2011:04 to investigate the relationship between the prices of two strategic commodities: gold and oil. We examine this relationship through the inflation channel and their interaction with the index of the US dollar. We used different oil price proxies for our investigation and found that the impact of oil price on the gold price is not asymmetric but non-linear. Further, results show that there is a long-run relationship existing between the prices of oil and gold. The findings imply that the oil price can be used to predict the gold price.

Suggested Citation

  • Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho, 2011. "Oil and gold: correlation or causation?," MPRA Paper 31795, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:31795
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    Cited by:

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    2. Turhan, M. Ibrahim & Sensoy, Ahmet & Ozturk, Kevser & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "A view to the long-run dynamic relationship between crude oil and the major asset classes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 286-299.
    3. Alam, Md Rafayet & Forhad, Md. Abdur Rahman & Sah, Nilesh B., 2022. "Consumption- and speculation-led change in demand for oil and the response of base metals: A Markov-switching approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    4. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Awe, Olushina O., 2017. "Time series analysis of co-movements in the prices of gold and oil: Fractional cointegration approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 117-124.
    5. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Balcilar, Mehmet & Abidin Ozdemir, Zeynel, 2017. "Does oil predict gold? A nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 257-265.
    6. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2013. "Oil and gold price dynamics in a multivariate cointegration framework," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 453-468, September.
    7. Golitsis, Petros & Gkasis, Pavlos & Bellos, Sotirios K., 2022. "Dynamic spillovers and linkages between gold, crude oil, S&P 500, and other economic and financial variables. Evidence from the USA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    8. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Owusu Junior, Peterson & Ahmad, Nasir & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Time-varying risk analysis for commodity futures," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    9. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2017. "Dynamics of crude oil and gold price post 2008 global financial crisis – New evidence from threshold vector error-correction model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 358-365.
    10. Yakup Soylemez, 2021. "The causality relationship between energy prices and developed countries indices," Bussecon Review of Social Sciences (2687-2285), Bussecon International Academy, vol. 3(2), pages 24-40, April.
    11. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Sahadudheen, I., 2015. "Understanding the nexus between oil and gold," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 85-91.
    12. Charbel Bassil & Hassan Hamadi & Patrick Mardini, 2019. "Gold and oil prices: stable or unstable long-run relationship," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(1), pages 57-72, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil price fluctuation; gold price; inflation; US dollar index; cointegration.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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