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The Dynamic Effects of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices on Iran's Methanol

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  • Delavari, Majid
  • Gandali Alikhani, Nadiya

Abstract

Petroleum and petrochemicals prices movements have always been at the core of economic research agenda not only because of its crucial effect on the cash flows of oil-related businesses, but also due to the far-reaching implications of oil price uncertainty on the macro-economy and the financial markets. It is not surprising therefore that in the energy economics literature there is a plethora of empirical studies examining the issue of modeling movements and risk management. As a case study, this paper investigates the dynamic relationship between Iran’s crude oil price, natural gas price and methanol price which is one of the most important non-oil exports of the oil-exporting country. To do so, the weekly data from first week of 2005:1 to the third week 2013:5 in a VECM framework is applied. The results show that in the long-run, oil and gas prices hikes leads to proportional increase in methanol price while in the short-run, this impact is not significant.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 49733.

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Date of creation: 12 Jan 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49733
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Keywords: Methanol Price; Crude Oil Price; Natural Gas Price; VECM Model;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
  • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
  • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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