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Long swings in Japan’s current account and in the yen

Author

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  • Müller-Plantenberg, Nikolas

    (Departamento de Análisis Económico (Teoría e Historia Económica). Universidad Autónoma de Madrid.)

Abstract

The yen has experienced several big swings over recent decades. This paper argues that the fluctuations of the Japanese exchange rate resulted mainly from corresponding movements in the current account, which affected the demand for yen relative to other currencies. The paper builds a vector error correction model for the exchange rate and the current account, based on the idea that the exchange rate and its economic fundamental do not move too far apart over time. In addition, the model allows for a Markov-switching stochastic trend in the current account. Regime changes occur at uncertain dates, possibly in response to exchange rate changes. Bayesian estimation proceeds using an innovative Gibbs-sampling procedure. The empirical results suggest that recurrent structural breaks in the yen’s fundamentals account for the large fluctuations of the Japanese exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Müller-Plantenberg, Nikolas, 2012. "Long swings in Japan’s current account and in the yen," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2012/08, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    • Handle: RePEc:uam:wpaper:201208
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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