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Inflation and output as predictors of stock returns and volatility: international evidence

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  • Nicole Davis
  • Ali Kutan

Abstract

Using monthly post-WWII data from 13 developed and developing countries and a battery of GARCH models, the influential study of Schwert's (Journal of Finance, 54 (5), 1115-1153, 1989) on US stock market volatility is extended to an international setting. In line with the evidence reported in Schwert (1989), it is found that macroeconomic volatility, measured by movements in inflation and real output, have a weak predictive power for stock market volatility and returns. The findings suggest that there is no strong support for the Fisher effect in international stock returns. Moreover, with the exception of a few countries, a procyclical monetary policy response seems evident in data during the sample period.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicole Davis & Ali Kutan, 2003. "Inflation and output as predictors of stock returns and volatility: international evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 693-700.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:13:y:2003:i:9:p:693-700
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100210139429
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Are Stock and Housing Returns Complements or Substitutes? Evidence from OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 3621, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Ricardo Sousa, 2011. "Building proxies that capture time-variation in expected returns using a VAR approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 147-163.
    3. Lindblad, Annika, 2017. "Sentiment indicators and macroeconomic data as drivers for low-frequency stock market volatility," MPRA Paper 80266, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Wealth, Labour Income, Stock Returns and Government Bond Yields, and Financial Stress in the Euro Area," NIPE Working Papers 22/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    5. Charles K.D. Adjasi, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and conditional stock-price volatility in frontier African markets: Evidence from Ghana," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 333-349, August.
    6. Ali Kutan & Tansu Aksoy, 2003. "Public Information Arrival and the Fisher Effect in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Stock and Bond Markets in Turkey," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 23(3), pages 225-239, June.
    7. Shehu Usman Rano Aliyu, 2012. "Does inflation have an impact on stock returns and volatility? Evidence from Nigeria and Ghana," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(6), pages 427-435, March.
    8. Yasemin Ulu, 2005. "Out-of-sample forecasting performance of the QGARCH model," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(6), pages 387-392, November.
    9. repec:eee:ecmode:v:69:y:2018:i:c:p:301-312 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Aktham Maghyereh, 2006. "The long-run relationship between stock returns and inflation in developing countries: further evidence from a nonparametric cointegration test," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 265-273, July.
    11. Eun Ahn & Jin Man Lee, 2006. "Volatility relationship between stock performance and real output," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 777-784.
    12. repec:lrc:lareco:v:5:y:2017:i:4:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Habibullah, M.S. & Baharom, A.H. & Fong, Kin Hing, 2009. "Predictive Content of Output and Inflation For Stock Returns and Volatility: Evidence from Selected Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 14114, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Ülkü, Numan & Baker, Saleh, 2014. "Country world betas: The link between the stock market beta and macroeconomic beta," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 36-46.

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