Stabilization policy and business cycle phases in Europe: a Markov switching VAR analysis
Most of the empirical studies dealing with international business cycles have disregarded the credibility issues that play an important role in the decision to join or not a monetary union. Most of empirical applications based on asymmetric shocks have failed to account for these aspects. In this paper, we tackle this problem by relying on a regime switching approach that characterizes the position of each economy in its business cycle. Then, using desynchronisation indices based on a non parametric approach, we measure the amplitude and the duration of divergence in the business cycles in order to assess the potential stabilization cost induced by the European economic and monetary union.
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|Date of creation:||2003|
|Publication status:||Published in: Journal of international economic integration (2003),p.214-242|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: CP135, 50, avenue F.D. Roosevelt, 1050 Bruxelles|
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- Helg, Rodolfo & Manasse, Paolo & Monacelli, Tommaso & Rovelli, Riccardo, 1995. "How much (a)symmetry in Europe? Evidence from industrial sectors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 1017-1041, May.
- Christodoulakis, Nicos & Dimelis, Sophia P & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1995. "Comparisons of Business Cycles in the EC: Idiosyncracies and Regularities," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 62(245), pages 1-27, February.
- Peree, Eric & Steinherr, Alfred, 1989. "Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1241-1264, July.
- Bertrand Candelon & Pierre-Yves Hénin, 1995. "La récession des années quatre-vingt dix a-t-elle été exceptionnelle ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 120(4), pages 51-71.
- Michel Beine & Frédéric Docquier, 1998.
"A stochastic simulation model of an optimum currency area,"
ULB Institutional Repository
2013/10461, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Michel Beine & FréDéric Docquier, 1998. "A Stochastic Simulation Model of an Optimum Currency Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 229-257, July.
- Artis, Michael J & Kontolemis, Zenon G & Osborn, Denise R, 1997. "Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(2), pages 249-79, April.
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