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Impact of oil price risk on sectoral equity markets: Implications on portfolio management

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  • Tiwari, Aviral Kumar
  • Jena, Sangram Keshari
  • Mitra, Amarnath
  • Yoon, Seong-Min

Abstract

Structure and degree of oil price impact on sectoral indices are examined using Quantile Regression Analysis (QRA). Nine sectors are found to provide diversification opportunities during a bull market (i.e. 90th quantile of the return distribution) and three sectors during a bear market (10th quantile) to hedge oil price risk. Further, the contagion effect and interdependency between oil price and sectoral equity are assessed through frequency domain causality. The causality from oil price in the long run determined that there is interdependence between three sectors and oil price changes. The direction of causality from oil price is mixed in both the short run (high frequency) and long run (low frequency) for nine sectors. Overall, the carbon sector is the only sector that is immune to oil price risk, thereby providing investment and hedging opportunities for portfolio managers.

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  • Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Jena, Sangram Keshari & Mitra, Amarnath & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2018. "Impact of oil price risk on sectoral equity markets: Implications on portfolio management," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 120-134.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:72:y:2018:i:c:p:120-134
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.03.031
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    Keywords

    Asymmetric quantile regression; Contagion; Interdependency; Oil price shocks; Tail risk; Frequency domain causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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