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Price relationships between qualitatively differentiated agricultural products: organic and conventional wheat in Germany

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  • Nadine Würriehausen
  • Rico Ihle
  • Sebastian Lakner

Abstract

Organic agriculture, which produces commodities that can be qualitatively differentiated from conventional food products, has grown into an important market in many countries. The dynamics of commodity prices in both sectors are partly interdependent, but are also shaped by independent determinants and have rarely been studied. We analyze organic food markets and their interdependencies with conventional markets in the context of wheat markets in Germany, which have been subject to a number of fundamental changes during the last two decades. Based on institutional market characteristics, we suggest a flexible Markov-switching asymmetric time series model. We find a pronounced temporal sequence of market phases that differ in their asymmetric dynamics and the extent to which the organic price is influenced by the conventional price. Organic wheat prices tend to be increasingly connected to prices of conventional wheat.

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  • Nadine Würriehausen & Rico Ihle & Sebastian Lakner, 2015. "Price relationships between qualitatively differentiated agricultural products: organic and conventional wheat in Germany," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(2), pages 195-209, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:46:y:2015:i:2:p:195-209
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    2. Willy Baltussen & Dusan Drabik & Liesbeth Dries & Michiel van Galen & Cornelis Gardebroek & Rico Ihle & Katja Logatcheva & Elsje Oosterkamp, 2019. "Monitoring of prices and margins in EU food supply chains," JRC Research Reports JRC114719, Joint Research Centre.
    3. Ansah, Isaac Gershon K. & Gardebroek, Cornelis & Ihle, Rico & Jaleta, Moti, 2016. "Got data too poor for time series analysis? Can cluster analysis be a remedy? Studying wheat market integration in Ethiopia," 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 246442, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    4. Lindström, Hanna, 2021. "Price transmission for organic and conventional milk products in Sweden," Umeå Economic Studies 999, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    5. Panos Fousekis, 2025. "A time‐varying and frequency‐dependent network of conventional and organic milk markets in France and Germany," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 69(1), pages 43-58, January.
    6. Dolgopolova, Irina & Roosen, Jutta, 2018. "Competitive niche in milk pricing: Analyzing price dynamics of GMO-free, organic, and conventional milk in Germany during 2009–2010," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 51-57.
    7. Adam Pawlewicz, 2020. "Change of Price Premiums Trend for Organic Food Products: The Example of the Polish Egg Market," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-22, February.
    8. Fousekis, Panos, 2024. "Connectedness between conventional and organic milk prices in the USA," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    9. César Salazar & Andrés Acuña-Duarte & José M. Gil, 2025. "Price relationships between differentiated agricultural products. Do energy and climate shocks matter?," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 13(1), pages 1-26, December.
    10. Alejandro Acosta & Rico Ihle & Stephan Cramon-Taubadel, 2019. "Combining market structure and econometric methods for pricetransmission analysis," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(4), pages 941-951, August.
    11. Raszap Skorbiansky, Sharon & Adjemian, Michael K. & Saitone, Tina L. & Sexton, Richard J., "undated". "Price Determination and Margin Volatility in Thinly Traded Commodity Markets: An Application to Major U.S. Field Crops," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258577, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Fousekis, Panos, 2024. "Price Links Among Qualitatively Differentiated Meats: Evidence from The UK Wholesale Beef Market," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 12(3), July.
    13. Drugova, Tatiana & Pozo, Veronica & Curtis, Kynda, 2018. "Forecasting Organic Wheat Prices: Do Conventional Prices Play a Role?," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 49(01), March.
    14. Lindström, Hanna, 2021. "Price transmission for organic and conventional milk products in Sweden," HFI Working Papers 22, Institute of Retail Economics (Handelns Forskningsinstitut).
    15. Nabieyan, Sedigheh & Safaei, Shiva & Mehrabi, Hosein, 2021. "Dynamics of Pistachio Prices Adjustment in Global Market and Export Market of Iran," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315848, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Sharon Raszap Skorbiansky & Michael K Adjemian, 2021. "Not All Thin Markets Are Alike: The Case of Organic and Non‐genetically Engineered Corn and Soybeans," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(1), pages 117-133, February.

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