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Forecasting Organic Wheat Prices: Do Conventional Prices Play a Role?


  • Drugova, Tatiana
  • Pozo, Veronica
  • Curtis, Kynda


Organic wheat production is generally profitable in the West, but farmers considering organic conversion or maintaining current organic fields face uncertainty due to significant price variations over time. The ability to predict price movements in this market is complicated by the limited availability of pricing data as well as missing observations. This study evaluates three methods to impute missing price observations. Additionally, we investigate short- and long-run relationships between organic and conventional wheat prices to understand whether conventional prices can help to predict organic wheat prices. Results indicate that conventional wheat prices influence organic prices, but only in the short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Drugova, Tatiana & Pozo, Veronica & Curtis, Kynda, 2018. "Forecasting Organic Wheat Prices: Do Conventional Prices Play a Role?," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 49(1), March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlofdr:274603
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.274603

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ariel Singerman & Sergio H. Lence & Amanda Kimble‐Evans, 2014. "How Related Are the Prices of Organic and Conventional Corn and Soybean?," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 309-330, June.
    2. Nemati, Mehdi & Saghaian, Sayed H., 2016. "Dynamics of Price Adjustment in Qualitatively Differentiated Markets in the U.S.: The Case of Organic and Conventional Apples," 2016 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2016, San Antonio, Texas 229950, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    3. McBride, William D. & Greene, Catherine R. & Ali, Mir B. & Foreman, Linda F., 2012. "The Structure and Profitability of Organic Field Crop Production: The Case of Wheat," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 123835, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Nadine Würriehausen & Rico Ihle & Sebastian Lakner, 2015. "Price relationships between qualitatively differentiated agricultural products: organic and conventional wheat in Germany," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(2), pages 195-209, March.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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