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Organic Crop Prices, or 2x Conventional Ones?

  • Singerman, Ariel
  • Lence, Sergio H.
  • Kimble-Evans, Amanda

Cointegration is tested between organic and conventional corn and soybean markets in several locations throughout the U.S. using a unique data set. Organic prices are found to behave like jump processes rather than diffusions, and Monte Carlo methods are developed to compute appropriate critical values for such tests. Findings indicate that no long-run relationship exists between organic and conventional prices, implying that price determination for organic corn and soybean is independent from that for the conventional crops. This suggests that organic corn and soybean prices are driven by demand and supply forces idiosyncratic to the organic market. For each crop, cointegrating spatial relationships are found between prices at the main organic markets. However, such relationships are generally weaker than the ones for the corresponding conventional prices, implying that organic markets are more affected by idiosyncratic shocks than conventional markets. �

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File URL: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/sites/default/files/publications/papers/p11544-2010-09-09.pdf
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Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 31544.

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Date of creation: 09 Sep 2010
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Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:31544
Contact details of provider: Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.eduEmail:


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  1. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
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  6. Chen, Xiaomei & Wang, H. Holly & Makus, Larry D., 2007. "Production Risk and Crop Insurance Effectiveness: Organic Versus Conventional Apples," SCC-76 Meeting, March 15-17, 2007, Gulf Shores, Alabama 9381, SCC-76: Economics and Management of Risk in Agriculture and Natural Resources.
  7. MacKinnon, James G, 1994. "Approximate Asymptotic Distribution Functions for Unit-Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 167-76, April.
  8. Hanson, James C. & Dismukes, Robert & Chambers, William & Greene, Catherine R. & Kremen, Amy, 2003. "Risk And Risk Management In Organic Agriculture: View Of Organic Farmers," Working Papers 28551, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  9. Singerman, Ariel & Hart, Chad E. & Lence, Sergio H., 2010. "Demand for Crop Insurance by Organic Corn and Soybean Farmers in Three Major Producing States," Staff General Research Papers 31528, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  10. Dimitri, Carolyn & Greene, Catherine R., 2002. "Recent Growth Patterns In The U.S. Organic Foods Market," Agricultural Information Bulletins 33715, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  11. McBride, William D. & Greene, Catherine R., 2008. "The Profitability of Organic Soybean Production," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6449, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
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  13. Klonsky, Karen & Greene, Catherine R., 2005. "Widespread Adoption of Organic Agriculture in the US: Are Market-Driven Policies Enough?," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19382, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
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  15. Greene, Catherine R. & Kremen, Amy, 2003. "U.S. Organic Farming In 2000-2001: Adoption Of Certified Systems," Agricultural Information Bulletins 33769, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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