Forecasting exchange rates out of sample: random walk vs Markov switching regimes
A random walk is compared with a Markov switching regimes process in forecasting exchange rates out of sample, using quarterly data on three currencies relative to the US dollar over the period 1973:3-1997:3. The results show that the relative performance of the models varies with the length of the post-sample period suggesting that the availability of more past information may be useful in forecasting future exchange rates.
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Volume (Year): 7 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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