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Forecasting exchange rates out of sample: random walk vs Markov switching regimes


  • Dimitris Kirikos


A random walk is compared with a Markov switching regimes process in forecasting exchange rates out of sample, using quarterly data on three currencies relative to the US dollar over the period 1973:3-1997:3. The results show that the relative performance of the models varies with the length of the post-sample period suggesting that the availability of more past information may be useful in forecasting future exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitris Kirikos, 2000. "Forecasting exchange rates out of sample: random walk vs Markov switching regimes," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 133-136.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:7:y:2000:i:2:p:133-136 DOI: 10.1080/135048500351979

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:eee:phsmap:v:493:y:2018:i:c:p:239-252 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Chien-Hsiu Lin & Shih-Kuei Lin & An-Chi Wu, 2015. "Foreign exchange option pricing in the currency cycle with jump risks," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 755-789, May.
    3. Raphaël Homayoun Boroumand & Stéphane Goutte & Thomas Porcher, 2014. "A regime-switching model to evaluate bonds in a quadratic term structure of interest rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(21), pages 1361-1366, November.
    4. Michał Rubaszek & Paweł Skrzypczyński & Grzegorz Koloch, 2010. "Forecasting the Polish Zloty with Non-Linear Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 2(2), pages 151-167, March.
    5. Burns, Kelly & Moosa, Imad A., 2015. "Enhancing the forecasting power of exchange rate models by introducing nonlinearity: Does it work?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 27-39.
    6. Lee, Hsiu-Yun & Chen, Show-Lin, 2006. "Why use Markov-switching models in exchange rate prediction?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 662-668, July.

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