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Do fundamentals matter for the D-Mark/Euro-Dollar? A regime switching approach

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  • Frommel, Michael
  • MacDonald, Ronald
  • Menkhoff, Lukas

Abstract

In this paper we demonstrate that there is evidence of an unstable and nonlinear re-lationship between fundamentals and exchange rates. Modeling this time-varying nature of the importance of fundamentals in a Markov switching framework substan-tially improves the fit of the real interest rate differential model and leads to parame-ter estimates, which in one regime are in line with theoretical expectations and allow us to draw reasonable conclusions on the influence of fundamentals on exchange rate dynamics. Factors which prove to be closely related to regime switches are short term interest rate, inflation differentials and differences in economic growth. There-fore fundamentals do not only matter for the exchange rate within each regime, but are also related to the switches between the regimes.
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Suggested Citation

  • Frommel, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2005. "Do fundamentals matter for the D-Mark/Euro-Dollar? A regime switching approach," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 321-335, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:15:y:2005:i:3:p:321-335
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    Cited by:

    1. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Regime shifts and the Canada/US exchange rate in a multivariate framework," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 206-211.
    2. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "Cointegration, structural breaks and monetary fundamentals of the Dollar/Yen Exchange," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(4), pages 397-412, November.
    3. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:4:p:397-412 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Beckmann, Joscha, 2013. "Nonlinear adjustment, purchasing power parity and the role of nominal exchange rates and prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 176-190.
    5. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "The dollar-euro exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals: a time-varying coefficient approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 11-40, April.
    6. repec:bla:reviec:v:25:y:2017:i:3:p:500-533 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:zbw:rwirep:0252 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2017. "Effective Exchange Rates, Current Accounts and Global Imbalances," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 500-533, August.
    9. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Dobnik, Frauke, 2012. "Cross-section dependence and the monetary exchange rate model – A panel analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 38-53.
    10. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Frauke Dobnik, 2011. "Cross-section Dependence and the Monetary Exchange Rate Mode – A Panel Analysis," Ruhr Economic Papers 0252, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    11. Syllignakis, Manolis N. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Markov-switching regimes and the monetary model of exchange rate determination: Evidence from the Central and Eastern European markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 707-723.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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