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Do Fundamentals Matter for the D-Mark/Euro-Dollar? A Regime Switching Approach

  • Frömmel, Michael
  • MacDonald, Ronald
  • Menkhoff, Lukas

In this paper we demonstrate that there is evidence of an unstable and nonlinear re-lationship between fundamentals and exchange rates. Modeling this time-varying nature of the importance of fundamentals in a Markov switching framework substan-tially improves the fit of the real interest rate differential model and leads to parame-ter estimates, which in one regime are in line with theoretical expectations and allow us to draw reasonable conclusions on the influence of fundamentals on exchange rate dynamics. Factors which prove to be closely related to regime switches are short term interest rate, inflation differentials and differences in economic growth. There-fore fundamentals do not only matter for the exchange rate within each regime, but are also related to the switches between the regimes.

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Paper provided by Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät in its series Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) with number dp-289.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-289
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  11. Hau, Harald & Rey, Hélène, 2003. "Exchange Rates, Equity Prices and Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 3735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Schinasi, Garry J. & Swamy, P. A. V. B., 1989. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of exchange rate models when coefficients are allowed to change," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 375-390, September.
  13. Ronald Macdonald & Mark P. Taylor, 1992. "Exchange Rate Economics: A Survey," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(1), pages 1-57, March.
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  17. Michael Froemmel & Ronald Macdonald & Lukas Menkhoff, 2004. "Markov Switching Regimes In A Monetary Exchange Rate Model," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 119, Royal Economic Society.
  18. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg, 2001. "Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the DM/$ Exchange Rate: Temporal Instability and the Monetary Model," Working Papers 50, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
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  28. Papell, David H., 1997. "Cointegration and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 445-459, June.
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