Efficiency of Crude Oil Futures Markets: New Evidence from Multifractal Detrending Moving Average Analysis
In this paper, we examine the weak-form efficient market hypothesis of crude oil futures markets by testing for the random walk behavior of prices. Using a method borrowed from statistical physics, we find that crude oil price display weak persistent behavior for time scales smaller than a year. For time scales larger than a year, strong mean-reversion behaviors can be found. That is, crude oil futures markets are not efficient in the short-term or in the long-term. By quantifying the market inefficiency using a “multifractality degree”, we find that the futures markets are more inefficient in the long-term than in the short-term. Furthermore, we investigate the “stylized fact” of volatility dynamics on market efficiency. The simulating and empirical results indicate that volatility clustering, volatility memory and extreme volatility have adverse effects on market efficiency, especially in the long-term. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013
Volume (Year): 42 (2013)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100248|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Serletis, Apostolos & Rosenberg, Aryeh Adam, 2007. "The Hurst exponent in energy futures prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 380(C), pages 325-332.
- Serletis, Apostolos, 1992.
"Unit root behavior in energy futures prices,"
1744, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Pan, Zhiyuan, 2011. "Multifractal detrending moving average analysis on the US Dollar exchange rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(20), pages 3512-3523.
- Gao-Feng Gu & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2010. "Detrending moving average algorithm for multifractals," Papers 1005.0877, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2010.
- James D. Hamilton, 2008.
"Understanding Crude Oil Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
14492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Alvarez, Jesus & Rodriguez, Eduardo, 2008. "Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: A detrended fluctuation analysis approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2645-2656, September.
- R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
- Kantelhardt, Jan W. & Zschiegner, Stephan A. & Koscielny-Bunde, Eva & Havlin, Shlomo & Bunde, Armin & Stanley, H.Eugene, 2002. "Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of nonstationary time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 87-114.
- Andrew W. Lo, 1989.
"Long-term Memory in Stock Market Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
2984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Wei, Yu, 2011. "Can GARCH-class models capture long memory in WTI crude oil markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 921-927, May.
- Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2009.
"The efficiency of the crude oil markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests,"
Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4267-4272, November.
- Amélie Charles & Olivier Darne, 2009. "The efficiency of the crude oil markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests," Post-Print hal-00771081, HAL.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Elder, John & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Long memory in energy futures prices," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 146-155.
- Zunino, L. & Tabak, B.M. & Figliola, A. & Pérez, D.G. & Garavaglia, M. & Rosso, O.A., 2008. "A multifractal approach for stock market inefficiency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(26), pages 6558-6566.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
- Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2008.
"Unit root properties of crude oil spot and futures prices,"
Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2591-2600, July.
- Svetlana Maslyuk & Russell Smyth, 2007. "Unit Root Properties of Crude Oil Spot and Futures Prices," Monash Economics Working Papers 40-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
- Fernandez, Viviana, 2010. "Commodity futures and market efficiency: A fractional integrated approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 276-282, December.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Tabak, Benjamin M. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2007. "Are the crude oil markets becoming weakly efficient over time? A test for time-varying long-range dependence in prices and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 28-36, January.
- Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li, 2010. "Is WTI crude oil market becoming weakly efficient over time?: New evidence from multiscale analysis based on detrended fluctuation analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 987-992, September.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996.
"Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Baillie, Bollerslev, Mikkelson FIGARCH results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00009, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Alvarez, Jesus & Solis, Ricardo, 2010. "Crude oil market efficiency and modeling: Insights from the multiscaling autocorrelation pattern," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 993-1000, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:42:y:2013:i:4:p:393-414. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.