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Bayesian option pricing using mixed normal heteroskedasticity models

  • ROMBOUTS, Jeroen V.K.
  • STENTOFT, Lars

While stochastic volatility models improve on the option pricing error when compared to the Black-Scholes-Merton model, mispricings remain. This paper uses mixed normal heteroskedasticity models to price options. Our model allows for significant negative skewness and time varying higher order moments of the risk neutral distribution. Parameter inference using Gibbs sampling is explained and we detail how to compute risk neutral predictive densities taking into account parameter uncertainty. When forecasting out-of-sample options on the S&P 500 index, substantial improvements are found compared to a benchmark model in terms of dollar losses and the ability to explain the smirk in implied volatilities.

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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 2009013.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2009013
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