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Marginal Likelihood for Markov-Switching and Change-Point GARCH Models

Author

Listed:
  • Luc Bauwens
  • Arnaud Dufays
  • Jeroen V.K. Rombouts

Abstract

GARCH volatility models with fixed parameters are too restrictive for long time series due to breaks in the volatility process. Flexible alternatives are Markov-switching GARCH and change-point GARCH models. They require estimation by MCMC methods due to the path dependence problem. An unsolved issue is the computation of their marginal likelihood, which is essential for determining the number of regimes or change-points. We solve the problem by using particle MCMC, a technique proposed by Andrieu, Doucet and Holenstein (2010). We examine the performance of this new method on simulated data, and we illustrate its use on several return series.

Suggested Citation

  • Luc Bauwens & Arnaud Dufays & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts, 2011. "Marginal Likelihood for Markov-Switching and Change-Point GARCH Models," Cahiers de recherche 1138, CIRPEE.
    • Handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:1138
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian inference; Simulation; GARCH; Markov-switching model; Change-point model; Marginal likelihood; Particle; MCMC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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