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Bayesian estimation of the gaussian mixture garch model

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  • Ausín Olivera, María Concepción
  • Galeano, Pedro

Abstract

In this paper, we perform Bayesian inference and prediction for a GARCH model where the innovations are assumed to follow a mixture of two Gaussian distributions. This GARCH model can capture the patterns usually exhibited by many financial time series such as volatility clustering, large kurtosis and extreme observations. A Griddy-Gibbs sampler implementation is proposed for parameter estimation and volatility prediction. The method is illustrated using the Swiss Market Index.

Suggested Citation

  • Ausín Olivera, María Concepción & Galeano, Pedro, 2005. "Bayesian estimation of the gaussian mixture garch model," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws053605, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws053605
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