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Robustness of the Risk-Return Relationship in the U.S. Stock Market

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  • Lanne, Markku
  • Luoto, Jani

Abstract

In this paper, we study the risk-return relationship in monthly U.S. stock returns (1928:1— 2004:12) using GARCH-in-Mean models. In particular, we consider the robustness of the relationship with respect to the omission of the intercept term in the equation for the expected excess return recently recommended by Lanne and Saikkonen (2006). The existence of the relationship is quite robust, but its estimated strength is dependent on the prior belief concerning the intercept. This is the case in particular in the first half of the sample period, where also the coefficient of the relative risk aversion is found to be smaller and the equity premium greater than in the latter half.

Suggested Citation

  • Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani, 2007. "Robustness of the Risk-Return Relationship in the U.S. Stock Market," MPRA Paper 3879, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3879
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani, 2008. "Robustness of the risk-return relationship in the U.S. stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 118-127, June.
    2. Ardia, David & Hoogerheide, Lennart F., 2010. "Efficient Bayesian estimation and combination of GARCH-type models," MPRA Paper 22919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Michelfelder, Richard A., 2015. "Empirical analysis of the generalized consumption asset pricing model: Estimating the cost of capital," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 37-50.
    4. Pauline Ahern & Frank Hanley & Richard Michelfelder, 2011. "New approach to estimating the cost of common equity capital for public utilities," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 261-278, December.
    5. Arshanapalli, Bala & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Nelson, William, 2013. "The role of jump dynamics in the risk–return relationship," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 212-218.
    6. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2011. "On the Risk-Return Tradeoff in the Stock Exchange of Thailand: New Evidence," MPRA Paper 45583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mohanty, Roshni & P, Srinivasan, 2014. "The Time-Varying Risk and Return Trade Off in Indian Stock Markets," MPRA Paper 55660, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ICAPM model; relative risk aversion; GARCH-in-Mean model; Bayesian analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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