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Bayesian option pricing using asymmetric GARCH



    () (Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), Louvain la Neuve, Belgium)

  • LUBRANO, Michel

    () (GREQAM, CNRS)


This paper shows how one can compute option prices from a Bayesian inference viewpoint, using an econometric model for the dynamics of the return and of the volatility of the underlying asset. The proposed evaluation of an option is the predictive expectation of its payoff function. The predictive distribution of this function provides a natural metric with respect to which the predictive option price, or other option evaluations, can be gauged. The proposed method is compared to the Black and Scholes evaluation, in which a predictive mean volatility is plugged, but which does not provide a natural metric. The methods are illustrated using an asymmetric GARCH model with a data set on a stock index in Brussels. The persistence of the volatility process is linked to the prediction horizon and to the option maturity.

Suggested Citation

  • BAUWENS, LUC & LUBRANO, Michel, 1997. "Bayesian option pricing using asymmetric GARCH," CORE Discussion Papers 1997059, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:1997059

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Michael Kremer, 1993. "The O-Ring Theory of Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 551-575.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani, 2008. "Robustness of the risk-return relationship in the U.S. stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 118-127, June.
    2. HAFNER, Christian M. & HERWARTZ, Helmut, 1998. "Volatility impulse response functions for multivariate GARCH models," CORE Discussion Papers 1998047, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

    More about this item


    Bayesian; GARCH; option pricing; simulation;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing


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