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Bayesian Option Pricing Using Mixed Normal Heteroskedasticity Models

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  • Jeroen Rombouts
  • Lars Stentoft

Abstract

While stochastic volatility models improve on the option pricing error when compared to the Black-Scholes-Merton model, mispricings remain. This paper uses mixed normal heteroskedasticity models to price options. Our model allows for significant negative skewness and time varying higher order moments of the risk neutral distribution. Parameter inference using Gibbs sampling is explained and we detail how to compute risk neutral predictive densities taking into account parameter uncertainty. When forecasting out-of-sample options on the S&P 500 index, substantial improvements are found compared to a benchmark model in terms of dollar losses and the ability to explain the smirk in implied volatilities.
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Suggested Citation

  • Jeroen Rombouts & Lars Stentoft, 2009. "Bayesian Option Pricing Using Mixed Normal Heteroskedasticity Models," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-19, CIRANO.
    • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2009s-19
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    Cited by:

    1. Haas Markus, 2010. "Skew-Normal Mixture and Markov-Switching GARCH Processes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(4), pages 1-56, September.
    2. Jean-Guy Simonato & Lars Stentoft, 2015. "Which pricing approach for options under GARCH with non-normal innovations?," CREATES Research Papers 2015-32, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Lin, Lisha & Li, Yaqiong & Gao, Rui & Wu, Jianhong, 2021. "The numerical simulation of Quanto option prices using Bayesian statistical methods," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 567(C).
    4. Hanno Gottschalk & Elpida Nizami & Marius Schubert, 2016. "Option Pricing in Markets with Unknown Stochastic Dynamics," Papers 1602.04848, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    5. Rombouts, Jeroen V.K. & Stentoft, Lars, 2015. "Option pricing with asymmetric heteroskedastic normal mixture models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 635-650.
    6. Rombouts, Jeroen V.K. & Stentoft, Lars, 2011. "Multivariate option pricing with time varying volatility and correlations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2267-2281, September.
    7. Bauwens, L. & Hafner C. & Laurent, S., 2011. "Volatility Models," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2011044, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
      • Bauwens, L. & Hafner, C. & Laurent, S., 2012. "Volatility Models," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2012028, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
      • BAUWENS, Luc & HAFNER, Christian & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2011. "Volatility models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011058, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    8. Yin-Wong Cheung & Sang-Kuck Chung, 2011. "A Long Memory Model with Normal Mixture GARCH," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 517-539, November.
    9. Rachidi Kotchoni, 2018. "Detecting and Measuring Nonlinearity," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, August.
    10. Lisha Lin & Yaqiong Li & Rui Gao & Jianhong Wu, 2019. "The Numerical Simulation of Quanto Option Prices Using Bayesian Statistical Methods," Papers 1910.04075, arXiv.org.
    11. Gao, Rui & Li, Yaqiong & Lin, Lisha, 2019. "Bayesian statistical inference for European options with stock liquidity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 518(C), pages 312-322.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian inference; option pricing; finite mixture models; out-of-sample prediction; GARCH models; Inférence bayésienne; fixation du prix des options; modèles à mélanges finis; prédiction hors-échantillon; modèles GARCH.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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