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Jump Processes in the Market for Crude Oil

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  • Neil A. Wilmot and Charles F. Mason

Abstract

In many commodity markets, the arrival of new information leads to unexpectedly rapid changes--or jumps--in commodity prices. Such arrivals suggest the assumption that log-return relatives are normally distributed may not hold. Combined with time-varying volatility, the possibility of jumps offers a potential explanation for fat tails in oil price returns. This article investigates the potential presence of jumps and time-varying volatility in the spot price of crude oil and in futures prices. The investigation is carried out over three data frequencies (Monthly, Weekly, Daily), which allows for an investigation of temporal properties. Employing likelihood ratio tests to compare among four stochastic data-generating processes, we find that that allowing for both jumps and time-varying volatility improves the model's ability to explain spot prices at each level of temporal aggregation; this combination also provides a statistically compelling improvement in model fit for futures prices at the Daily and Weekly level. At the monthly level, allowing for jumps does not provide a statistically significant increase in model fit after incorporating time-varying volatility into the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Neil A. Wilmot and Charles F. Mason, 2013. "Jump Processes in the Market for Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej34-1-02
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    6. Chih-Chen Hsu & An-Sing Chen & Shih-Kuei Lin & Ting-Fu Chen, 2017. "The affine styled-facts price dynamics for the natural gas: evidence from daily returns and option prices," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 819-848, April.
    7. Boucekkine, Raouf & Prieur, Fabien & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis & Zou, Benteng, 2021. "Stochastic petropolitics: The dynamics of institutions in resource-dependent economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    8. Mason, Charles F. & A. Wilmot, Neil, 2014. "Jump processes in natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 69-79.
    9. Elie Bouri, 2019. "The Effect of Jumps in the Crude Oil Market on the Sovereign Risks of Major Oil Exporters," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Maslyuk-Escobedo, Svetlana & Rotaru, Kristian & Dokumentov, Alexander, 2017. "News sentiment and jumps in energy spot and futures markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 186-210.
    11. Rousse, Olivier & Sévi, Benoît, 2016. "Informed Trading in Oil-Futures Market," ESP: Energy Scenarios and Policy 249788, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    12. Neil A. Wilmot, 2013. "Cointegration in the Oil Market among Regional Blends," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 424-433.
    13. Mason, Charles F. & Wilmot, Neil A., 2020. "Jumps in the convenience yield of crude oil," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    14. Wang, Xiao & Zhang, Chuanguo, 2014. "The impacts of global oil price shocks on China׳s fundamental industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 394-402.
    15. Charles F. Mason & Neil A. Wilmot, 2023. "On Climate Fat Tails and Politics," CESifo Working Paper Series 10815, CESifo.
    16. Kearney, Fearghal & Murphy, Finbarr & Cummins, Mark, 2015. "An analysis of implied volatility jump dynamics: Novel functional data representation in crude oil markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 199-216.
    17. Arturo Lorenzo-Valdés, 2021. "Conditional Probability of Jumps in Oil Prices," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(4), pages 1-14, Octubre -.
    18. Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang & Feng Ma & Yu Wei, 2022. "To jump or not to jump: momentum of jumps in crude oil price volatility prediction," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-31, December.
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    20. Chen, Yu-Fu & Mu, Xiaoyi, 2021. "Asymmetric volatility in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    21. Olivier Rousse & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "Informed Trading in Oil-Futures Market," Working Papers hal-01460186, HAL.

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