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Stochastic Petropolitics: The Dynamics of Institutions in Resource-Dependent Economies

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  • Raouf Boucekkine

    (IMéRA - Institute for Advanced Studies - Aix-Marseille University, IUF - Institut Universitaire de France - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche, AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Fabien Prieur

    (UPN - Université Paris Nanterre)

  • Chrysovalantis Vasilakis

    (Bangor University, UCL IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain)

  • Benteng Zou

    (CREA - Center for Research in Economic Analysis - Uni.lu - Université du Luxembourg)

Abstract

We provide an analysis of institutional dynamics under uncertainty by means of a stochastic differential game of lobbying with two players (conservatives vs liberals) and three main ingredients. The first one is uncertainty inherent in the institutional process itself. The second considers resource windfalls volatility impact on economic and institutional outcomes. Last but not least, the resource windfall level matters in the relative bargaining power of the players. We compute a unique closed-loop equilibrium with linear feedbacks. We show that the legislative state converges to an invariant distribution. Even more importantly, we demonstrate that the most likely asymptotic legislative state is favorable to the liberals. However, the more volatile resource windfalls, the less liberal is the most likely asymptotic state. Finally, we assess the latter prediction on a database covering 91 countries over the period 1973-2005. We focus on financial liberalization policies. We find that as the resources revenues volatility increases, the financial liberalization index goes down. We also find that this property remains robust across different specifications and sample distinctions.

Suggested Citation

  • Raouf Boucekkine & Fabien Prieur & Chrysovalantis Vasilakis & Benteng Zou, 2018. "Stochastic Petropolitics: The Dynamics of Institutions in Resource-Dependent Economies," Working Papers halshs-01758376, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01758376
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    revenue-dependent lobbying power; lobbying games; petropolitics; stochastic dynamic games; stochastic stability; institutional dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development

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