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On the timing of political regime changes in resource-dependent economies

Author

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  • Boucekkine, Raouf
  • Prieur, Fabien
  • Puzon, Klarizze

Abstract

We consider a resource-dependent economy initially ruled by the elite. The transition from the autocratic to a more democratic regime takes place only if the citizens decide to revolt against the elite. The occurrence of a revolution primarily depends on the autocratic regime vulnerability and the level of inequalities, both being driven by the elite׳s redistribution and repression policies. First, we show that when a political transition is inevitable, the elite choose the maximum rate of redistribution to lengthen their period in office. Second, we find that the duration of the autocratic regime is linked to resource abundance, and how it relates to the elite׳s policies. More resources lead to a shorter reign of a redistributive regime, which may not be the case of a repressive regime. Finally, we interpret the Arab spring sequence in light of our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Boucekkine, Raouf & Prieur, Fabien & Puzon, Klarizze, 2016. "On the timing of political regime changes in resource-dependent economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 188-207.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:85:y:2016:i:c:p:188-207
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2016.02.016
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    Cited by:

    1. Raouf Boucekkine & Carmen Camacho & Benteng Zou, 2020. "Optimal switching from competition to cooperation: a preliminary exploration," PSE Working Papers halshs-02434786, HAL.
    2. Bove, Vincenzo & Platteau, Jean-Philippe & Sekeris, Petros G., 2017. "Political repression in autocratic regimes," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 410-428.
    3. Raouf Boucekkine & Rodolphe Desbordes & Paolo Melindi-Ghidi, 2020. "Education, neopatrimonialism, and revolutions," AMSE Working Papers 2017, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    4. Raouf Boucekkine & Fabien Prieur & Chrysovalantis Vasilakis & Benteng Zou, 2018. "Stochastic Petropolitics: The Dynamics of Institutions in Resource-Dependent Economies," AMSE Working Papers 1810, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    5. Boucekkine, Raouf & Piacquadio, Paolo G. & Prieur, Fabien, 2019. "A Lipsetian theory of voluntary power handover," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 269-291.
    6. Long, Ngo Van & Prieur, Fabien & Tidball, Mabel & Puzon, Klarizze, 2017. "Piecewise closed-loop equilibria in differential games with regime switching strategies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 264-284.
    7. Raouf Boucekkine & Rodolphe Desbordes & Paolo Melindi-Ghidi, 2019. "Particularism, dominant minorities and institutional change," Working Papers hal-02317663, HAL.
    8. Matata Ponyo Mapon & Jean-Paul K. Tsasa, 2019. "The artefact of the Natural Resources Curse," Papers 1911.09681, arXiv.org.
    9. Cordella, Tito & Onder, Harun, 2020. "Sharing oil rents and political violence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    10. Raouf Boucekkine & Paolo Giovanni Piacquadio & Fabien Prieur, 2016. "A Lipsetian Theory of Democratization: Development, Education, Inequality, and Resources," CESifo Working Paper Series 6283, CESifo.
    11. Ngo Van Long, 2019. "Managing, Inducing, and Preventing Regime Shifts: A Review of the Literature," CESifo Working Paper Series 7749, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political transitions; Natural resources; Timing of revolutions; Duration of autocracies; Arab spring;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

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