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Sharing oil rents and political violence

Author

Listed:
  • Cordella,Tito
  • Onder,Harun

Abstract

This paper investigates how the devolution of oil windfalls affects the likelihood of political violence. It shows that transferring large shares of oil wealth can prevent conflict, while transferring small shares can trigger it. Among the different transfer schemes, fiscal transfers (to subnational governments) yield the highest levels of consumption, but direct transfers (to people) are the most effective in preventing conflict. By averting conflict, transfers can improve ex ante welfare; however, only a subset of the ex ante welfare optimal transfers is optimal ex post and thus self-enforcing. Among them, those that avert conflict by reinforcing repressive regimes are of particular policy interest.

Suggested Citation

  • Cordella,Tito & Onder,Harun, 2016. "Sharing oil rents and political violence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7869, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7869
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bosco, Davide & Colombo, Luca & Femminis, Gianluca, 2025. "Conflict, information and regime-change," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Vásquez-Quezada, Cristóbal & Oyarzo, Mauricio, 2024. "Spatial analysis of technical efficiency in the provision of local public goods: The case of Chilean mining municipalities," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    4. Pafadnam, Neerbewendé Abdoul Rachid, 2024. "How does implementing the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) affect economic growth? Evidence from developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Sverker Sikström & Mats Dahl & Hannah Lettmann & Anna Alexandersson & Elena Schwörer & Lotta Stille & Oscar Kjell & Åse Innes-Ker & Leonard Ngaosuvan, 2021. "What you say and what I hear—Investigating differences in the perception of the severity of psychological and physical violence in intimate partner relationships," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(8), pages 1-21, August.
    6. Neerbewendé Abdoul Rachid Pafadnam, 2024. "How does implementing the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) affect economic growth? Evidence from developing countries," Post-Print hal-04727043, HAL.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

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