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On the timing of political regime changes in resource-dependent economies

Author

Listed:
  • Raouf Boucekkine

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Fabien Prieur

    (LAMETA - Laboratoire Montpelliérain d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier)

  • Klarizze Puzon

    (UM1 - Université Montpellier 1, GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We consider a resource-dependent economy initially ruled by the elite. The transition from the autocratic to a more democratic regime takes place only if the citizens decide to revolt against the elite. The occurrence of a revolution primarily depends on the autocratic regime vulnerability and the level of inequalities, both being driven by the elite׳s redistribution and repression policies. First, we show that when a political transition is inevitable, the elite choose the maximum rate of redistribution to lengthen their period in office. Second, we find that the duration of the autocratic regime is linked to resource abundance, and how it relates to the elite׳s policies. More resources lead to a shorter reign of a redistributive regime, which may not be the case of a repressive regime. Finally, we interpret the Arab spring sequence in light of our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Raouf Boucekkine & Fabien Prieur & Klarizze Puzon, 2016. "On the timing of political regime changes in resource-dependent economies," Post-Print hal-01440292, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01440292
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2016.02.016
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Raouf Boucekkine & Carmen Camacho & Benteng Zou, 2020. "Optimal switching from competition to cooperation: a preliminary exploration," PSE Working Papers halshs-02434786, HAL.
    2. Bove, Vincenzo & Platteau, Jean-Philippe & Sekeris, Petros G., 2017. "Political repression in autocratic regimes," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 410-428.
    3. Raouf Boucekkine & Rodolphe Desbordes & Paolo Melindi-Ghidi, 2020. "Education, neopatrimonialism, and revolutions," AMSE Working Papers 2017, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    4. Boucekkine, Raouf & Seegmuller, Thomas & Venditti, Alain, 2021. "Advances in growth and macroeconomic dynamics: In memory of Carine Nourry," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-6.
    5. Boucekkine, Raouf & Prieur, Fabien & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis & Zou, Benteng, 2021. "Stochastic petropolitics: The dynamics of institutions in resource-dependent economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    6. Boucekkine, Raouf & Piacquadio, Paolo G. & Prieur, Fabien, 2019. "A Lipsetian theory of voluntary power handover," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 269-291.
    7. Raouf Boucekkine & Rodolphe Desbordes & Paolo Melindi-Ghidi, 2023. "Elite-led revolutions," Working Papers hal-04225397, HAL.
    8. Long, Ngo Van & Prieur, Fabien & Tidball, Mabel & Puzon, Klarizze, 2017. "Piecewise closed-loop equilibria in differential games with regime switching strategies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 264-284.
    9. Raouf Boucekkine & Rodolphe Desbordes & Paolo Melindi-Ghidi, 2019. "Particularism, dominant minorities and institutional change," Working Papers hal-02317663, HAL.
    10. Natali Hritonenko & Victoria Hritonenko & Yuri Yatsenko, 2020. "Games with Adaptation and Mitigation," Games, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-16, December.
    11. Carolyn Chisadza & Eduard van der Merwe & Matthew W. Clance, 2021. "Government religious preference and intrastate conflict," Working Papers 867, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    12. Matata Ponyo Mapon & Jean-Paul K. Tsasa, 2019. "The artefact of the Natural Resources Curse," Papers 1911.09681, arXiv.org.
    13. Cordella, Tito & Onder, Harun, 2020. "Sharing oil rents and political violence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    14. Raouf Boucekkine & Paolo Giovanni Piacquadio & Fabien Prieur, 2016. "A Lipsetian Theory of Democratization: Development, Education, Inequality, and Resources," CESifo Working Paper Series 6283, CESifo.
    15. Ngo Van Long, 2019. "Managing, Inducing, and Preventing Regime Shifts: A Review of the Literature," CESifo Working Paper Series 7749, CESifo.
    16. Liu, Taoxiong & Liu, Zhuohao, 2022. "A growth model with endogenous technological revolutions and cycles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    17. Ghoddusi, Hamed & Moghaddam, Hussein & Wirl, Franz, 2022. "Going downstream – An economical option for oil and gas exporting countries?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Arab sprin; Arab spring; Duration of autocracies; Natural resources; Political transitions; Timing of revolutions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

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