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The Defanging Effect of Education and Autocratic Survival

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  • Raouf Boucekkine

    (AMU - Aix Marseille Université, AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Rodolphe Desbordes

    (SKEMA Business School, UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur)

  • Paolo Melindi-Ghidi

    (AMU - Aix Marseille Université, AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The modernisation theory of regime change is often perceived to be a murky paradigm, lacking theoretical or empirical foundations. In response, we clarify the links between education and regime change.More specifically, we propose that education contributes indirectly to the collapse of autocratic regimes because educated people engage in non-violent (civil) resistance that reduces the effectiveness of the security apparatus. We empirically test the validity of this 'defanging effect' of education. We indeed find that the combination of high autocracy and high education levels tends to trigger non-violent campaigns, which in turn increases the likelihood of a regime change, likely to be associated with political liberalisation.

Suggested Citation

  • Raouf Boucekkine & Rodolphe Desbordes & Paolo Melindi-Ghidi, 2025. "The Defanging Effect of Education and Autocratic Survival," Post-Print hal-05425375, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05425375
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05425375v1
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