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Jump Processes in Natural Gas Markets

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Listed:
  • Charles F. Mason
  • Neil Wilmot

Abstract

Natural gas is likely to become increasingly important in the future. Understanding the stochastic underpinnings of natural gas prices will be critical, both to policy analysts and to market participants. To this end, we investigate the potential presence of jumps in natural gas spot prices in the U. S. and in the U. K. We find compelling empirical evidence for the importance of jumps in both markets, though jumps appear to appear more frequently in the U. K. Some of the difference between the U.S. and U.K. jump probabilities may be due to oil prices, other factors play a role.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles F. Mason & Neil Wilmot, 2014. "Jump Processes in Natural Gas Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 4604, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4604
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Mason, Charles F. & Wilmot, Neil A., 2020. "Jumps in the convenience yield of crude oil," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    10. Jo-Hui & Chen & Sabbor Hussain, 2022. "Jump Dynamics and Leverage Effect: Evidences from Energy Exchange Traded Fund (ETFs)," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(6), pages 1-7.
    11. Svetlana Borovkova & Diego Mahakena, 2015. "News, volatility and jumps: the case of natural gas futures," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 1217-1242, July.
    12. Pastory Dickson & Emmanuel Munishi, 2022. "Volatility shocks in energy commodities: The influence of COVID-19," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 11(2), pages 214-227, March.
    13. Oleksandr Castello & Marina Resta, 2023. "A Machine-Learning-Based Approach for Natural Gas Futures Curve Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-22, June.
    14. Davis, Rebecca J. & Sims, Charles, 2016. "To Frack or Not to Frack: Option Value Analysis on the U.S. Natural Gas Market," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235642, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Yanyun Liu & Baiqing Sun, 2023. "Investment strategies of duopoly firms with asymmetric time-to-build under a jump-diffusion model," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 98(3), pages 377-410, December.
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    18. Li, Bingxin, 2019. "Pricing dynamics of natural gas futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 91-108.
    19. Michael Weylandt & Yu Han & Katherine B. Ensor, 2019. "Multivariate Modeling of Natural Gas Spot Trading Hubs Incorporating Futures Market Realized Volatility," Papers 1907.10152, arXiv.org.
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    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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