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Jump Processes in Natural Gas Markets

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  • Charles F. Mason
  • Neil Wilmot

Abstract

Natural gas is likely to become increasingly important in the future. Understanding the stochastic underpinnings of natural gas prices will be critical, both to policy analysts and to market participants. To this end, we investigate the potential presence of jumps in natural gas spot prices in the U. S. and in the U. K. We find compelling empirical evidence for the importance of jumps in both markets, though jumps appear to appear more frequently in the U. K. Some of the difference between the U.S. and U.K. jump probabilities may be due to oil prices, other factors play a role.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles F. Mason & Neil Wilmot, 2014. "Jump Processes in Natural Gas Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 4604, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4604
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    Cited by:

    1. Oleksandr Castello & Marina Resta, 2023. "A Machine-Learning-Based Approach for Natural Gas Futures Curve Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-22, June.
    2. Jean Pierre Fernández Prada Saucedo & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2020. "Modeling the Volatility of Returns on Commodities: An Application and Empirical Comparison of GARCH and SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2020-484, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    3. Davis, Rebecca J. & Sims, Charles, 2016. "To Frack or Not to Frack: Option Value Analysis on the U.S. Natural Gas Market," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235642, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Baum, Christopher F. & Zerilli, Paola & Chen, Liyuan, 2021. "Stochastic volatility, jumps and leverage in energy and stock markets: Evidence from high frequency data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    5. Brix, Anne Floor & Lunde, Asger & Wei, Wei, 2018. "A generalized Schwartz model for energy spot prices — Estimation using a particle MCMC method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 560-582.
    6. Fernandes, Mário Correia & Dias, José Carlos & Nunes, João Pedro Vidal, 2021. "Modeling energy prices under energy transition: A novel stochastic-copula approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    7. Janda, Karel & Kourilek, Jakub, 2020. "Residual shape risk on natural gas market with mixed jump diffusion price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Grant, Angelia L., 2016. "Modeling energy price dynamics: GARCH versus stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 182-189.
    9. Li, Bingxin, 2019. "Pricing dynamics of natural gas futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 91-108.
    10. Zouhaier Dhifaoui, 2022. "Determinism and Non-linear Behaviour of Log-return and Conditional Volatility: Empirical Analysis for 26 Stock Markets," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 11(1), pages 69-94, June.
    11. Mason, Charles F. & Wilmot, Neil A., 2024. "On climate fat tails and politics," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    12. Michael Weylandt & Yu Han & Katherine B. Ensor, 2019. "Multivariate Modeling of Natural Gas Spot Trading Hubs Incorporating Futures Market Realized Volatility," Papers 1907.10152, arXiv.org.
    13. Chang, Kuang-Liang & Lee, Chingnun, 2020. "The asymmetric spillover effect of the Markov switching mechanism from the futures market to the spot market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 374-388.
    14. Mason, Charles F. & Wilmot, Neil A., 2020. "Jumps in the convenience yield of crude oil," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    15. Jo-Hui & Chen & Sabbor Hussain, 2022. "Jump Dynamics and Leverage Effect: Evidences from Energy Exchange Traded Fund (ETFs)," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(6), pages 1-7.
    16. Svetlana Borovkova & Diego Mahakena, 2015. "News, volatility and jumps: the case of natural gas futures," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 1217-1242, July.
    17. Pastory Dickson & Emmanuel Munishi, 2022. "Volatility shocks in energy commodities: The influence of COVID-19," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 11(2), pages 214-227, March.
    18. Martina Assereto & Julie Byrne, 2020. "The Implications of Policy Uncertainty on Solar Photovoltaic Investment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-20, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural gas prices; jump diffusion; GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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