IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v502y2018icp629-641.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evidence of infinite and finite jump processes in commodity futures prices: Crude oil and natural gas

Author

Listed:
  • Cao, Wenbin
  • Guernsey, Scott B.
  • Linn, Scott C.

Abstract

We examine the frequency and character of price jumps in front month oil and natural gas futures prices. Prices are sampled every five seconds over the period 2006–2014. Our test results indicate that jumps in crude oil and natural gas futures prices can be decomposed into an infinite activity jump diffusion process and a less frequent but larger jump process. We also find that we cannot reject the hypothesis that Brownian motion is also present in both return series. The results are based on a battery of tests that are “model free”. We further find that jumps account for respectively 36 and 41 percent of the realized variances of the crude oil and the natural gas returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Cao, Wenbin & Guernsey, Scott B. & Linn, Scott C., 2018. "Evidence of infinite and finite jump processes in commodity futures prices: Crude oil and natural gas," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 502(C), pages 629-641.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:502:y:2018:i:c:p:629-641
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.03.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437118303157
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2018.03.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dilip B. Madan & Peter P. Carr & Eric C. Chang, 1998. "The Variance Gamma Process and Option Pricing," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 2(1), pages 79-105.
    2. Anders B. Trolle & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2009. "Unspanned Stochastic Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4423-4461, November.
    3. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2003. "The Finite Moment Log Stable Process and Option Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 753-777, April.
    4. Bakshi, Gurdip & Cao, Charles & Chen, Zhiwu, 1997. "Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2003-2049, December.
    5. Gronwald, Marc, 2012. "A characterization of oil price behavior — Evidence from jump models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1310-1317.
    6. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Jean Jacod, 2012. "Analyzing the Spectrum of Asset Returns: Jump and Volatility Components in High Frequency Data," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1007-1050, December.
    7. Arabinda Basistha & Alexander Kurov, 2015. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Surprises on Energy Prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 87-103, January.
    8. Xin Huang & George Tauchen, 2005. "The Relative Contribution of Jumps to Total Price Variance," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 456-499.
    9. Pierre Bajgrowicz & Olivier Scaillet & Adrien Treccani, 2016. "Jumps in High-Frequency Data: Spurious Detections, Dynamics, and News," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(8), pages 2198-2217, August.
    10. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    11. Nomikos, Nikos & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2012. "Modelling energy spot prices: Empirical evidence from NYMEX," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1153-1169.
    12. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    13. Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
    14. Madan, Dilip B & Seneta, Eugene, 1990. "The Variance Gamma (V.G.) Model for Share Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(4), pages 511-524, October.
    15. Gary B. Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2013. "The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-105.
    16. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    17. Lee, Yen-Hsien & Hu, Hsu-Ning & Chiou, Jer-Shiou, 2010. "Jump dynamics with structural breaks for crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 343-350, March.
    18. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George, 2010. "First-passage probability, jump models, and intra-horizon risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 20-40, January.
    19. Peter Carr & Helyette Geman, 2002. "The Fine Structure of Asset Returns: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 305-332, April.
    20. S. G. Kou, 2002. "A Jump-Diffusion Model for Option Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 1086-1101, August.
    21. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2003. "The Finite Moment Log Stable Process and Option Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 753-778, April.
    22. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. "How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-1191, September.
    23. Gibson, Rajna & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. "Stochastic Convenience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 959-976, July.
    24. Askari, Hossein & Krichene, Noureddine, 2008. "Oil price dynamics (2002-2006)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2134-2153, September.
    25. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 1997. "Processes of normal inverse Gaussian type," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 41-68.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xue Jin & Shiwei Zhou & Kedong Yin & Mingzhen Li, 2021. "Relationships between Copper Futures Markets from the Perspective of Jump Diffusion," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(18), pages 1-25, September.
    2. Dai, Xingyu & Li, Matthew C. & Xiao, Ling & Wang, Qunwei, 2022. "COVID-19 and China commodity price jump behavior: An information spillover and wavelet coherency analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Sun, Bianxia & Gao, Yang, 2020. "Market liquidity and macro announcement around intraday jumps: Evidence from Chinese stock index futures markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 541(C).
    4. Janda, Karel & Kourilek, Jakub, 2020. "Residual shape risk on natural gas market with mixed jump diffusion price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Naeyoung Kang & Jungmu Kim, 2019. "An Empirical Analysis of Bitcoin Price Jump Risk," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-11, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2004. "Time-changed Levy processes and option pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 113-141, January.
    2. Markus Leippold & Nikola Vasiljević, 2020. "Option-Implied Intrahorizon Value at Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 397-414, January.
    3. Feng, Chengxiao & Tan, Jie & Jiang, Zhenyu & Chen, Shuang, 2020. "A generalized European option pricing model with risk management," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    4. Sun, Qi & Xu, Weidong, 2015. "Pricing foreign equity option with stochastic volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 437(C), pages 89-100.
    5. Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2007. "Stochastic skew in currency options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 213-247, October.
    6. Xu Guo & Yutian Li, 2016. "Valuation of American options under the CGMY model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 1529-1539, October.
    7. Lindström, Erik & Ströjby, Jonas & Brodén, Mats & Wiktorsson, Magnus & Holst, Jan, 2008. "Sequential calibration of options," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 2877-2891, February.
    8. Sévi, Benoît, 2015. "Explaining the convenience yield in the WTI crude oil market using realized volatility and jumps," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 243-251.
    9. Liuren Wu, 2006. "Dampened Power Law: Reconciling the Tail Behavior of Financial Security Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1445-1474, May.
    10. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Jean Jacod, 2012. "Analyzing the Spectrum of Asset Returns: Jump and Volatility Components in High Frequency Data," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1007-1050, December.
    11. Chan, Tat Lung (Ron), 2019. "Efficient computation of european option prices and their sensitivities with the complex fourier series method," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    12. Sandun Perera & Winston Buckley & Hongwei Long, 2018. "Market-reaction-adjusted optimal central bank intervention policy in a forex market with jumps," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(1), pages 213-238, March.
    13. Jean-Philippe Aguilar & Jan Korbel & Nicolas Pesci, 2021. "On the Quantitative Properties of Some Market Models Involving Fractional Derivatives," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(24), pages 1-24, December.
    14. Dilip B. Madan & Wim Schoutens, 2019. "Arbitrage Free Approximations to Candidate Volatility Surface Quotations," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-21, April.
    15. Fu, Jun & Yang, Hailiang, 2012. "Equilibruim approach of asset pricing under Lévy process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(3), pages 701-708.
    16. Henri Bertholon & Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2006. "Pricing and Inference with Mixtures of Conditionally Normal Processes," Working Papers 2006-28, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    17. Björn Lutz, 2010. "Pricing of Derivatives on Mean-Reverting Assets," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-02909-7, December.
    18. Jingzhi Huang & Liuren Wu, 2004. "Specification Analysis of Option Pricing Models Based on Time- Changed Levy Processes," Finance 0401002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Chang, Lung-fu & Hung, Mao-wei, 2009. "Analytical valuation of catastrophe equity options with negative exponential jumps," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 59-69, February.
    20. Jean-Philippe Aguilar, 2021. "The value of power-related options under spectrally negative Lévy processes," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 173-196, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:502:y:2018:i:c:p:629-641. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.