IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v383y2025ics0306261924026461.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Market dynamics and power risks in green technology materials: Platinum under the EU 2030 hydrogen target

Author

Listed:
  • Sesini, Marzia
  • Zwickl-Bernhard, Sebastian
  • Münchmeyer, Max
  • Hobbs, Benjamin F.

Abstract

The central role of hydrogen in the EU’s decarbonization strategy has increased the importance of critical raw materials. To address this, the EU has taken legislative steps, including the 2023 Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), to ensure a stable supply. Using a leader–follower Stackelberg game framework, this study analyzes CRM market dynamics, integrating CRMA compliance through rules on sourcing and stockpiling, value chain resilience via the inclusion of supply diversification strategies, and geopolitical influences by modeling exporter behaviors and trade dependencies. Results highlight the potential for strategic behavior by major exporters, stressing the benefits of diversifying export sources and maintaining strategic stockpiles to stabilize supply. The findings provide insights into the EU’s efforts to secure CRM supplies, key to achieving decarbonization goals and fostering a sustainable energy transition. Future research should explore alternative cost-reduction strategies, mitigate exporter market power, and evaluate the implications for pricing mechanisms, market outcomes, and consumer welfare

Suggested Citation

  • Sesini, Marzia & Zwickl-Bernhard, Sebastian & Münchmeyer, Max & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2025. "Market dynamics and power risks in green technology materials: Platinum under the EU 2030 hydrogen target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 383(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:383:y:2025:i:c:s0306261924026461
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.125262
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261924026461
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.125262?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bao, Dun, 2020. "Dynamics and correlation of platinum-group metals spot prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. Robinson, Zurika, 2017. "Sustainability of platinum production in South Africa and the dynamics of commodity pricing," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 107-114.
    3. Mason, Charles F. & A. Wilmot, Neil, 2014. "Jump processes in natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 69-79.
    4. Katarzyna Guzik & Krzysztof Galos & Alicja Kot-Niewiadomska & Toni Eerola & Pasi Eilu & Jorge Carvalho & Francisco Javier Fernandez-Naranjo & Ronald Arvidsson & Nikolaos Arvanitidis & Agnes Raaness, 2021. "Potential Benefits and Constraints of Development of Critical Raw Materials’ Production in the EU: Analysis of Selected Case Studies," Resources, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-36, June.
    5. Harvey, L.D. Danny, 2021. "Iron and steel recycling: Review, conceptual model, irreducible mining requirements, and energy implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    6. Kim, Junbeum & Guillaume, Bertrand & Chung, Jinwook & Hwang, Yongwoo, 2015. "Critical and precious materials consumption and requirement in wind energy system in the EU 27," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 327-334.
    7. Tokimatsu, Koji & Wachtmeister, Henrik & McLellan, Benjamin & Davidsson, Simon & Murakami, Shinsuke & Höök, Mikael & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2017. "Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: A first look at metal requirements and the 2°C target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 494-509.
    8. Pommeret, Aude & Ricci, Francesco & Schubert, Katheline, 2022. "Critical raw materials for the energy transition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    9. Behnaz Minooei Fard & Willi Semmler & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo, 2023. "Rare Earth Elements: A game between China and the rest of the world," Working Papers in Public Economics 235, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    10. Igogo, Tsisilile & Awuah-Offei, Kwame & Newman, Alexandra & Lowder, Travis & Engel-Cox, Jill, 2021. "Integrating renewable energy into mining operations: Opportunities, challenges, and enabling approaches," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    11. Wirl, Franz, 2008. "Why do oil prices jump (or fall)?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1029-1043, March.
    12. Park, Sulgiye & Tracy, Cameron L. & Ewing, Rodney C., 2023. "Reimagining US rare earth production: Domestic failures and the decline of US rare earth production dominance – Lessons learned and recommendations," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    13. Zhu, Xuehong & Ding, Qian & Chen, Jinyu, 2022. "How does critical mineral trade pattern affect renewable energy development? The mediating role of renewable energy technological progress," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    14. Considine, Jennifer & Galkin, Phillip & Hatipoglu, Emre & Aldayel, Abdullah, 2023. "The effects of a shock to critical minerals prices on the world oil price and inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    15. Xia, Qifan & Du, Debin & Cao, Wanpeng & Li, Xiya, 2023. "Who is the core? Reveal the heterogeneity of global rare earth trade structure from the perspective of industrial chain," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    16. Islam, Md. Monirul & Sohag, Kazi & Alam, Md. Mahmudul, 2022. "Mineral import demand and clean energy transitions in the top mineral-importing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    17. repec:osf:osfxxx:kbj69_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Dou Shiquan & Xu Deyi, 2023. "The security of critical mineral supply chains," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(3), pages 401-412, September.
    19. Sverdrup, Harald U. & Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala, 2016. "A system dynamics model for platinum group metal supply, market price, depletion of extractable amounts, ore grade, recycling and stocks-in-use," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 130-152.
    20. Mancheri, Nabeel A., 2015. "World trade in rare earths, Chinese export restrictions, and implications," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 262-271.
    21. Pihl, Erik & Kushnir, Duncan & Sandén, Björn & Johnsson, Filip, 2012. "Material constraints for concentrating solar thermal power," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 944-954.
    22. Jones, Ben & Elliott, Robert J.R. & Nguyen-Tien, Viet, 2020. "The EV revolution: The road ahead for critical raw materials demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    23. Kentaro Iwatsubo & Clinton Watkins, 2022. "Causality between Arbitrage and Liquidity in Platinum Futures," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-17, December.
    24. Liang, Yanan & Kleijn, René & Tukker, Arnold & van der Voet, Ester, 2022. "Material requirements for low-carbon energy technologies: A quantitative review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    25. Liang, Yanan & Kleijn, René & van der Voet, Ester, 2023. "Increase in demand for critical materials under IEA Net-Zero emission by 2050 scenario," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).
    26. Kleijn, Rene & van der Voet, Ester, 2010. "Resource constraints in a hydrogen economy based on renewable energy sources: An exploration," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 2784-2795, December.
    27. Talens Peiró, Laura & Martin, Nick & Villalba Méndez, Gara & Madrid-López, Cristina, 2022. "Integration of raw materials indicators of energy technologies into energy system models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    28. Islam, Md. Monirul & Sohag, Kazi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Mariev, Oleg & Samargandi, Nahla, 2022. "Minerals import demands and clean energy transitions: A disaggregated analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    29. David Pozo & Enzo Sauma & Javier Contreras, 2017. "Basic theoretical foundations and insights on bilevel models and their applications to power systems," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 254(1), pages 303-334, July.
    30. Klossek, Polina & Kullik, Jakob & van den Boogaart, Karl Gerald, 2016. "A systemic approach to the problems of the rare earth market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 131-140.
    31. Topal, Erkan & Ramazan, Salih, 2010. "A new MIP model for mine equipment scheduling by minimizing maintenance cost," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 1065-1071, December.
    32. Machacek, Erika & Fold, Niels, 2014. "Alternative value chains for rare earths: The Anglo-deposit developers," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 53-64.
    33. António Mateus & Luís Martins, 2021. "Building a mineral-based value chain in Europe: the balance between social acceptance and secure supply," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 34(2), pages 239-261, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hu, Xueyue & Wang, Chunying & Elshkaki, Ayman, 2024. "Material-energy Nexus: A systematic literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    2. García-Gusano, Diego & Iribarren, Diego & Muñoz, Iñigo & Arrizabalaga, Eneko & Mabe, Lara & Martín-Gamboa, Mario, 2025. "The future need for critical raw materials associated with long-term energy and climate strategies: The illustrative case study of power generation in Spain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    3. Saqib, Najia & Ozturk, Ilhan & Sharif, Arshian & Cichoń, Dariusz, 2024. "Enhancing sustainable energy: Mineral exports, financial development, and foreign investment can build a greener future?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    4. Abbas, Khizar & Han, Mengyao & Xu, Deyi & Butt, Khalid Manzoor & Baz, Khan & Cheng, Jinhua & Zhu, Yongguang & Hussain, Sanwal, 2024. "Exploring synergistic and individual causal effects of rare earth elements and renewable energy on multidimensional economic complexity for sustainable economic development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 364(C).
    5. Liang, Yanan & Kleijn, René & Tukker, Arnold & van der Voet, Ester, 2022. "Material requirements for low-carbon energy technologies: A quantitative review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    6. Priore, Riccardo & Compagnoni, Marco & Favot, Marinella, 2025. "Innovation in rare earths recycling: A quantitative and qualitative analysis of patent data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    7. Zhang, Qingjun & Wei, Renyi & Fan, Sijia, 2025. "New energy mineral price shocks and volatility responses in green securities markets: Structural effects and dynamic spillovers," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 382(C).
    8. Song, Yi & Zhang, Zhouyi & Zhang, Yijun & Cheng, Jinhua, 2022. "Technological innovation and supply of critical metals: A perspective of industrial chains," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Md. Monirul Islam, 2024. "A Cross-Country Examination of Mineral Import Demand and Wind Energy Generation: Empirical Insights from Leading Mineral Importers," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 23(1), pages 6-32.
    10. Fikru, Mahelet G. & Kilinc-Ata, Nurcan & Belaïd, Fateh, 2024. "Climate policy stringency and trade in energy transition minerals: An analysis of response patterns," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    11. Irfan, Muhammad & Rehman, Mubeen Abdur & Razzaq, Asif & Hao, Yu, 2023. "What derives renewable energy transition in G-7 and E-7 countries? The role of financial development and mineral markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    12. Kim Maya Yavor & Vanessa Bach & Matthias Finkbeiner, 2021. "Resource Assessment of Renewable Energy Systems—A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, May.
    13. Attílio, Luccas Assis, 2025. "Impact of critical mineral prices on energy transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 377(PD).
    14. Yaseen, Iqra & Singh, Surendar & Banerjee, Suvajit, 2025. "Bolstering critical minerals trade between India and other MSP countries: A gravity model evaluation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    15. D’Orazio, Paola, 2024. "Assessing the fiscal implications of changes in critical minerals’ demand in the low-carbon energy transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 376(PA).
    16. Ren, Kaipeng & Tang, Xu & Wang, Peng & Willerström, Jakob & Höök, Mikael, 2021. "Bridging energy and metal sustainability: Insights from China’s wind power development up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    17. Yang, Xiaoming & Islam, Md. Monirul & Mentel, Grzegorz & Ahmad, Ashfaq & Vasa, László, 2024. "Synergistic dynamics unveiled: Interplay between rare earth prices, clean energy innovations, and tech companies' market resilience amidst the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    18. Viglioni, Marco Túlio Dinali & Calegario, Cristina Lelis Leal & Bruhn, Nádia Campos Pereira, 2025. "Effects of economic complexity and metallic mineral resources on renewable energy transition in developing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    19. Namahoro, Jean Pierre & Wu, Qiaosheng & Ihimbabzwe, Beatrice & Yang, Cheng, 2025. "Mineral resources and investment drive clean energy progress: Evidence from economic and governance effectiveness tiers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
    20. Li, Zehong & Wang, Chunying & Chen, Jian, 2024. "Supply and demand of lithium in China based on dynamic material flow analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:383:y:2025:i:c:s0306261924026461. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.