IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v146y2025ics0140988325003470.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of financial stress, governance, and geopolitics on Europe's energy transition mineral trade

Author

Listed:
  • Mariev, Oleg
  • Islam, Md. Monirul

Abstract

This study investigates how intra- and extra-territorial imports of energy transition minerals (ETMs) by the 27 Member States of the European Union respond to its energy transition parameters amidst the interplay of financial stress, mineral prices, electoral and political governance, and geopolitical turmoil. It utilizes monthly data from January 2004 to December 2023, also subdivided into two distinct periods covering the pre-Russia-Ukraine crisis period (January 2004–December 2021) and the Russia-Ukraine crisis period (January 2022–December 2023). The study applies the partial cross-quantilogram and wavelet local multiple correlation methods to manage heavy-tailed data characteristics. The findings indicate that Europe's ETM imports rise in line with the transition to clean energy despite volatility shocks from mineral prices and geopolitical events across all three periods. The combined effect of financial stress and ETM prices negatively affects Europe's mineral imports in bull markets, particularly due to volatility shocks during the Russia-Ukraine crisis period. In contrast, the interaction between electoral and political governance and geopolitics positively influences mineral imports, again except during the Russia-Ukraine crisis period. This study contributes to disentangling the transmission and volatility effects of pricing and geopolitical risk issues within the modeling framework. Finally, this research emphasizes the need for strategic resource management, risk mitigation, and improved governance to support Europe's mineral trade-driven energy transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariev, Oleg & Islam, Md. Monirul, 2025. "The impact of financial stress, governance, and geopolitics on Europe's energy transition mineral trade," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:146:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325003470
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108523
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988325003470
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108523?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blengini, Gian Andrea & Nuss, Philip & Dewulf, Jo & Nita, Viorel & Peirò, Laura Talens & Vidal-Legaz, Beatriz & Latunussa, Cynthia & Mancini, Lucia & Blagoeva, Darina & Pennington, David & Pellegrini,, 2017. "EU methodology for critical raw materials assessment: Policy needs and proposed solutions for incremental improvements," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 12-19.
    2. Farid, Saqib & Karim, Sitara & Naeem, Muhammad A. & Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2023. "Co-movement between dirty and clean energy: A time-frequency perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    3. Vivoda, Vlado & Matthews, Ron & McGregor, Neil, 2024. "A critical minerals perspective on the emergence of geopolitical trade blocs," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Li, Zheng-Zheng & Meng, Qin & Zhang, Linling & Lobont, Oana-Ramona & Shen, Yijuan, 2023. "How do rare earth prices respond to economic and geopolitical factors?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    5. Islam, Md. Monirul & Sohag, Kazi & Alam, Md. Mahmudul, 2022. "Mineral import demand and clean energy transitions in the top mineral-importing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. repec:osf:osfxxx:kbj69_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Sarah Bauerle Danzman & Sophie Meunier, 2024. "The EU's Geoeconomic Turn: From Policy Laggard to Institutional Innovator," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 1097-1115, July.
    8. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    9. Zhang, Zhenhua & Zhang, Yunpeng & Zhao, Mingcheng & Muttarak, Raya & Feng, Yanchao, 2023. "What is the global causality among renewable energy consumption, financial development, and public health? New perspective of mineral energy substitution," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    10. Tokimatsu, Koji & Wachtmeister, Henrik & McLellan, Benjamin & Davidsson, Simon & Murakami, Shinsuke & Höök, Mikael & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2017. "Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: A first look at metal requirements and the 2°C target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 494-509.
    11. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    12. Beat Hintermann & Sonja Peterson & Wilfried Rickels, 2016. "Price and Market Behavior in Phase II of the EU ETS: A Review of the Literature," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(1), pages 108-128.
    13. Islam, Md. Monirul & Sohag, Kazi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Mariev, Oleg & Samargandi, Nahla, 2022. "Minerals import demands and clean energy transitions: A disaggregated analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    14. Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir & Frodyma, Katarzyna, 2018. "Determinants of renewable energy development in the EU countries. A 20-year perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 918-934.
    15. Chang, Lei & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Mohsin, Muhammad, 2023. "Role of mineral resources trade in renewable energy development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    16. Altınkeski, Buket Kırcı & Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2022. "Financial stress transmission between the U.S. and the Euro Area," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    17. Axbard, Sebastian & Benshaul-Tolonen, Anja & Poulsen, Jonas, 2021. "Natural resource wealth and crime: The role of international price shocks and public policy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    18. Igogo, Tsisilile & Awuah-Offei, Kwame & Newman, Alexandra & Lowder, Travis & Engel-Cox, Jill, 2021. "Integrating renewable energy into mining operations: Opportunities, challenges, and enabling approaches," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    19. Irfan, Muhammad & Rehman, Mubeen Abdur & Razzaq, Asif & Hao, Yu, 2023. "What derives renewable energy transition in G-7 and E-7 countries? The role of financial development and mineral markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    20. Zhao, Xin-Xin & Zheng, Mingbo & Fu, Qiang, 2022. "How natural disasters affect energy innovation? The perspective of environmental sustainability," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    21. Islam, Md. Monirul & Sohag, Kazi & Mariev, Oleg, 2023. "Geopolitical risks and mineral-driven renewable energy generation in China: A decomposed analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    22. Baur, Dirk G. & Smales, Lee A., 2020. "Hedging geopolitical risk with precious metals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    23. Han, Heejoon & Linton, Oliver & Oka, Tatsushi & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2016. "The cross-quantilogram: Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(1), pages 251-270.
    24. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Kyle J. Kost, 2019. "Policy News and Stock Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 25720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Islam, Md. Monirul & Sohag, Kazi & Mariev, Oleg, 2024. "Mineral import demand-driven solar energy generation in China: A threshold estimation using the counterfactual shock approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    26. Yu, Donglei & Wenhui, Xiong & Anser, Muhammad Khalid & Nassani, Abdelmohsen A. & Imran, Muhammad & Zaman, Khalid & Haffar, Mohamed, 2023. "Navigating the global mineral market: A study of resource wealth and the energy transition," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    27. Saleem H. Ali & Damien Giurco & Nicholas Arndt & Edmund Nickless & Graham Brown & Alecos Demetriades & Ray Durrheim & Maria Amélia Enriquez & Judith Kinnaird & Anna Littleboy & Lawrence D. Meinert & R, 2017. "Correction: Corrigendum: Mineral supply for sustainable development requires resource governance," Nature, Nature, vol. 547(7662), pages 246-246, July.
    28. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2017. "Dating systemic financial stress episodes in the EU countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 30-56.
    29. Saleem H. Ali & Damien Giurco & Nicholas Arndt & Edmund Nickless & Graham Brown & Alecos Demetriades & Ray Durrheim & Maria Amélia Enriquez & Judith Kinnaird & Anna Littleboy & Lawrence D. Meinert & R, 2017. "Mineral supply for sustainable development requires resource governance," Nature, Nature, vol. 543(7645), pages 367-372, March.
    30. Crowson, Phillip, 1996. "The European mining industry : What future?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-2), pages 99-105.
    31. Monirul Islam & Kazi Sohag, 2023. "Mineral import demand and wind energy deployment in the USA: Co-integration and counterfactual analysis approaches," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(4), pages 697-717, December.
    32. Paramati, Sudharshan Reddy & Apergis, Nicholas & Ummalla, Mallesh, 2017. "Financing clean energy projects through domestic and foreign capital: The role of political cooperation among the EU, the G20 and OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 62-71.
    33. Chen, Ping & Xi, JunYa & Li, Yuming & Ozturk, Ilhan & Ullah, Sana & Hafeez, Muhammad, 2024. "How do mineral resources trade and financial development affect green entrepreneurship in resource-rich economies?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    34. Patrice Christmann, 2021. "Mineral Resource Governance in the 21st Century and a sustainable European Union," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 34(2), pages 187-208, July.
    35. Ma, Liuyun & Niu, Lijuan, 2024. "Mineral resources policy with economic risk: Envisaging the role of mineral resources with inclusive financial development for the US economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    36. Sven Renner & Friedrich W. Wellmer, 2020. "Volatility drivers on the metal market and exposure of producing countries," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, October.
    37. Tagliapietra, Simone & Zachmann, Georg & Edenhofer, Ottmar & Glachant, Jean-Michel & Linares, Pedro & Loeschel, Andreas, 2019. "The European union energy transition: Key priorities for the next five years," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 950-954.
    38. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "What are the categories of geopolitical risks that could drive oil prices higher? Acts or threats?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    39. Peter Newell, 2019. "Trasformismo or transformation? The global political economy of energy transitions," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 25-48, January.
    40. Islam, Md. Monirul & Sohag, Kazi & Berezin, Andrey & Sergi, Bruno S., 2024. "Factor proportions model for Russian mineral supply-driven global energy transition: Does externality matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    41. Polanco Martínez, Josué M. & Abadie, Luis M. & Fernández-Macho, J., 2018. "A multi-resolution and multivariate analysis of the dynamic relationships between crude oil and petroleum-product prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1550-1560.
    42. Feng, Chen-Yu & Yang, Xiaodong & Afshan, Sahar & Irfan, Muhamamd, 2023. "Can renewable energy technology innovation promote mineral resources’ green utilization efficiency? Novel insights from regional development inequality," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    43. Abbas, Shujaat & Sinha, Avik & Saha, Tanaya & Shah, Muhammad Ibrahim, 2023. "Response of mineral market to renewable energy production in the USA: Where lies the sustainable energy future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    44. António Mateus & Luís Martins, 2021. "Building a mineral-based value chain in Europe: the balance between social acceptance and secure supply," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 34(2), pages 239-261, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Islam, Md. Monirul & Sohag, Kazi & Berezin, Andrey & Sergi, Bruno S., 2024. "Factor proportions model for Russian mineral supply-driven global energy transition: Does externality matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Md. Monirul Islam, 2024. "A Cross-Country Examination of Mineral Import Demand and Wind Energy Generation: Empirical Insights from Leading Mineral Importers," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 23(1), pages 6-32.
    3. Yang, Xiaoming & Islam, Md. Monirul & Mentel, Grzegorz & Ahmad, Ashfaq & Vasa, László, 2024. "Synergistic dynamics unveiled: Interplay between rare earth prices, clean energy innovations, and tech companies' market resilience amidst the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Zhang, Qingjun & Wei, Renyi & Fan, Sijia, 2025. "New energy mineral price shocks and volatility responses in green securities markets: Structural effects and dynamic spillovers," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 382(C).
    5. Mariev, Oleg & Blueschke, Dmitri, 2025. "Interplay of Chinese rare earth elements supply and European clean energy transition: A geopolitical context analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    6. Sesini, Marzia & Zwickl-Bernhard, Sebastian & Münchmeyer, Max & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2025. "Market dynamics and power risks in green technology materials: Platinum under the EU 2030 hydrogen target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 383(C).
    7. Viglioni, Marco Túlio Dinali & Calegario, Cristina Lelis Leal & Bruhn, Nádia Campos Pereira, 2025. "Effects of economic complexity and metallic mineral resources on renewable energy transition in developing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    8. Liu, Xi & Zhang, Xueyong, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and currency returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    9. Islam, Md. Monirul & Sohag, Kazi & Mariev, Oleg, 2023. "Geopolitical risks and mineral-driven renewable energy generation in China: A decomposed analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    10. Md. Monirul Islam & Kazi Sohag & Faheem ur Rehman, 2022. "Do Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Policy Uncertainties Reorient Mineral Imports in the USA? A Fat-Tailed Data Analysis Using Novel Quantile Approaches," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, December.
    11. Depraiter, Lisa & Goutte, Stéphane & Porcher, Thomas, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and the global supply of rare earth permanent magnets: Insights from China’s export trends," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    12. Fikru, Mahelet G. & Kilinc-Ata, Nurcan & Belaïd, Fateh, 2024. "Climate policy stringency and trade in energy transition minerals: An analysis of response patterns," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    13. Islam, Md. Saiful & Islam, Md. Monirul & Rehman, Anis Ur & Alam, Md. Fakhre & Tarique, Md., 2024. "Mineral production amidst the economy of uncertainty: Response of metallic and non-metallic minerals to geopolitical turmoil in Saudi Arabia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    14. Liu, Zhenhua & Wang, Yushu & Yuan, Xinting & Ding, Zhihua & Ji, Qiang, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and vulnerability of energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    15. Hao, Xinlei & Ma, Yong & Pan, Dongtao, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and the predictability of spillovers between exchange, commodity and stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    16. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2024. "The impact of uncertainty shocks on energy transition metal prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    17. Assaf, Ata & Charif, Husni & Mokni, Khaled, 2021. "Dynamic connectedness between uncertainty and energy markets: Do investor sentiments matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    18. Mikhail Stolbov & Maria Shchepeleva, 2021. "Macrofinancial linkages in Europe: Evidence from quantile local projections," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5557-5569, October.
    19. János Szanyi & Ladislaus Rybach & Hawkar A. Abdulhaq, 2023. "Geothermal Energy and Its Potential for Critical Metal Extraction—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-28, October.
    20. Cai, Yifei & Zhang, Yahua & Wu, Yanrui & Chang, Tsangyao, 2024. "Airline stock market performance and political relations: A cross-quantilogram analysis of Chinese and US carriers," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 124-149.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:146:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325003470. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.