IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehu/ikerla/6484.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

Author

Listed:
  • Abadie, Luis María
  • Chamorro Gómez, José Manuel

Abstract

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Abadie, Luis María & Chamorro Gómez, José Manuel, 2006. "Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments," IKERLANAK 2006-25, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico I.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehu:ikerla:6484
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://addi.ehu.es/handle/10810/6484
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kjarstad, Jan & Johnsson, F., 2007. "Prospects of the European gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 869-888, February.
    2. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    3. Alvarez, Luis H. R. & Keppo, Jussi, 2002. "The impact of delivery lags on irreversible investment under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 173-180, January.
    4. Margaret Insley, 2003. "On the option to invest in pollution control under a regime of tradable emissions allowances," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 860-883, November.
    5. Cartea, Álvaro & Williams, Thomas, 2008. "UK gas markets: The market price of risk and applications to multiple interruptible supply contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 829-846, May.
    6. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-157, April.
    7. Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March.
    8. Nasakkala, Erkka & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2005. "Flexibility and technology choice in gas fired power plant investments," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 371-393.
    9. Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
    10. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    11. Jaime Casassus & Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2005. "Stochastic Convenience Yield Implied from Commodity Futures and Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2283-2331, October.
    12. Diko Pavel & Lawford Steve & Limpens Valerie, 2006. "Risk Premia in Electricity Forward Prices," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-24, September.
    13. Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro, José M., 2008. "European CO2 prices and carbon capture investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2992-3015, November.
    14. Insley, Margaret, 2002. "A Real Options Approach to the Valuation of a Forestry Investment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 471-492, November.
    15. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2003. "Implementing a stochastic model for oil futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 215-238, May.
    16. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C, 1996. "Investment Lags," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 610-622, June.
    17. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1998. "Monte Carlo evaluation model of an undeveloped oil field," Journal of Energy Finance & Development, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 73-84.
    18. Dagobert L. Brito & Peter R. Hartley, 2007. "Expectations and the Evolving World Gas Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-24.
    19. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    20. David G. Laughton & Henry D. Jacoby, 1993. "Reversion, Timing Options, and Long-Term Decision-Making," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
    21. Malcolm P. Baker & E. Scott Mayfield & John E. Parsons, 1998. "Alternative Models of Uncertain Commodity Prices for Use with Modern Asset Pricing Methods," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 115-148.
    22. James L. Paddock & Daniel R. Siegel & James L. Smith, 1988. "Option Valuation of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of Offshore Petroleum Leases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(3), pages 479-508.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:spr:joptap:v:161:y:2014:i:1:d:10.1007_s10957-013-0309-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Mason, Charles F. & A. Wilmot, Neil, 2014. "Jump processes in natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 69-79.
    3. Hervé-Mignucci, Morgan, 2011. "Rôle du signal prix du carbone sur les décisions d'investissement des entreprises," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/8200 edited by Keppler, Jan Horst, July.
    4. Pless, Jacquelyn & Arent, Douglas J. & Logan, Jeffrey & Cochran, Jaquelin & Zinaman, Owen, 2016. "Quantifying the value of investing in distributed natural gas and renewable electricity systems as complements: Applications of discounted cash flow and real options analysis with stochastic inputs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 378-390.
    5. Joachim Gahungu and Yves Smeers, 2012. "A Real Options Model for Electricity Capacity Expansion," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/08, European University Institute.
    6. Josué M. Polanco-Martínez & Luis M. Abadie, 2016. "Analyzing Crude Oil Spot Price Dynamics versus Long Term Future Prices: A Wavelet Analysis Approach," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(12), pages 1-19, December.
    7. Arvesen, Ø. & Medbø, V. & Fleten, S.-E. & Tomasgard, A. & Westgaard, S., 2013. "Linepack storage valuation under price uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 155-164.
    8. Luis M. Abadie, 2009. "Valuation of Long-Term Investments in Energy Assets under Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(3), pages 1-31, September.
    9. repec:eee:appene:v:210:y:2018:i:c:p:241-255 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Kostrova, Alisa & Britz, Wolfgang & Djanibekov, Utkur & Finger, Robert, 2016. "Monte-Carlo Simulation and Stochastic Programming in Real Options Valuation: the Case of Perennial Energy Crop Cultivation," Discussion Papers 250253, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    11. Hieronymi, Philipp & Schüller, David, 2015. "The Clean-Development Mechanism, stochastic permit prices and energy investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 25-36.
    12. GAHUNGU, Joachim & SMEERS, Yves, 2011. "A real options model for electricity capacity expansion," CORE Discussion Papers 2011044, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    13. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Garcés, Francisco, 2015. "Real option valuation of power transmission investments by stochastic simulation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 215-226.
    14. Park, Sun-Young & Yoo, Seung-Hoon, 2013. "The economic value of LNG in the Korean manufacturing industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 403-407.
    15. Sönmez, Erkut & Kekre, Sunder & Scheller-Wolf, Alan & Secomandi, Nicola, 2013. "Strategic analysis of technology and capacity investments in the liquefied natural gas industry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 226(1), pages 100-114.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real options; power plants; stochastic revenues and cost; CO2 allowances; LNG;

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehu:ikerla:6484. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alcira Macías Redondo). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/f1ehues.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.