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UK gas markets: The market price of risk and applications to multiple interruptible supply contracts

  • Cartea, Álvaro
  • Williams, Thomas

We employ the Schwartz and Smith [Schwartz, E., and J. Smith, 2000, Short-term variations and long-term dynamics in commodity prices, Management Science 46, 893-911.] model to explore the dynamics of the UK gas markets. We discuss in detail the short-term and long-term market prices of risk borne by the market players and how deviations from expected cyclical storage affect the short-term market price of risk. Finally, we illustrate an application of the model by pricing interruptible supply contracts that are currently traded in the UK.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

Volume (Year): 30 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 829-846

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:30:y:2008:i:3:p:829-846
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  1. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-47.
  2. Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo Figueroa, 2005. "Pricing in Electricity Markets: A Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 313-335.
  3. N. Meinshausen & B. M. Hambly, 2004. "Monte Carlo Methods For The Valuation Of Multiple-Exercise Options," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 557-583.
  4. L. C. G. Rogers, 2002. "Monte Carlo valuation of American options," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 271-286.
  5. Marcelo G. Figueroa, 2006. "Pricing Multiple Interruptible-Swing Contracts," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0606, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  6. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  7. Gibson, Rajna & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. " Stochastic Convenience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 959-76, July.
  8. Benth, Fred Espen & Koekebakker, Steen, 2008. "Stochastic modeling of financial electricity contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1116-1157, May.
  9. Fred Espen Benth & Lars Ekeland & Ragnar Hauge & Bj�Rn Fredrik Nielsen, 2003. "A note on arbitrage-free pricing of forward contracts in energy markets," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 325-336.
  10. Alvaro Escribano & Juan Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2002. "Modeling Electricity Prices: International Evidence," Economics Working Papers we022708, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  11. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-73, July.
  12. Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
  13. Ibáñez, Alfredo & Zapatero, Fernando, 2004. "Monte Carlo Valuation of American Options through Computation of the Optimal Exercise Frontier," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(02), pages 253-275, June.
  14. Patrick Jaillet & Ehud I. Ronn & Stathis Tompaidis, 2004. "Valuation of Commodity-Based Swing Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(7), pages 909-921, July.
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