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Forecasting long memory time series when occasional breaks occur

  • Bisaglia, Luisa
  • Gerolimetto, Margherita

In this paper, in order to investigate if a long memory model will provide good forecasts even if the real DGP is affected by level shifts (as suggested by Diebold, F.X., Inoue, A., 2001. Long memory and regime switching Journal of Econometrics, 105, 131-159) we compare via simulations the forecasting performance of long memory and occasional breaks processes.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V84-4NP97X9-1/1/d8e26c32fe11201674f95dbb5c549e5e
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 98 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 253-258

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:98:y:2008:i:3:p:253-258
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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  1. Dominique Guegan, 2005. "How can we define the concept of long memory ? An econometric survey," Post-Print halshs-00179343, HAL.
  2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
  3. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  4. Robert F. Engle & Aaron D. Smith, 1999. "Stochastic Permanent Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 553-574, November.
  5. Bhardwaj, Geetesh & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "An empirical investigation of the usefulness of ARFIMA models for predicting macroeconomic and financial time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 539-578.
  6. Granger, Clive W. J. & Hyung, Namwon, 2004. "Occasional structural breaks and long memory with an application to the S&P 500 absolute stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 399-421, June.
  7. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  8. Dominique Guegan, 2004. "How Can We Define the Long Memory Concept? An Econometric Survey," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 361, Econometric Society.
  9. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
  10. Vasco J. Gabriel & Luis F. Martins, 2004. "On the forecasting ability of ARFIMA models when infrequent breaks occur," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 455-475, December.
  11. Luisa Bisaglia & Silvano Bordignon, 2002. "Mean square prediction error for long-memory processes," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 161-175, April.
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