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Deconstructing credibility: The breaking of monetary policy rules in Brazil

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  • Cortes, Gustavo S.
  • Paiva, Claudio A.C.

Abstract

Can political interference deconstruct credibility that was hardly-earned through successful stabilization policy? We analyze the recent switch in the conduct of monetary policy by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB). Brazil is the largest Emerging Market Economy to formally target inflation, having adopted the Inflation Targeting (IT) regime in 1999. In the early years of IT, the BCB engaged in constructing credibility with price setting agents and succeeded to anchor inflation expectations to its target even under adverse conditions such as exchange rate crises. We argue that this effort to maintain IT rules-based policy ended in 2011, as a new country president and BCB board came to power. We then discuss the consequences of this credibility loss. Our main results can be summarized as follows: (i) we provide strong empirical evidence of the BCB’s shift toward looser, discretionary policy after 2011; (ii) preliminary evidence suggests that this shift has affected agents’ inflation expectations generating social and economic costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Cortes, Gustavo S. & Paiva, Claudio A.C., 2017. "Deconstructing credibility: The breaking of monetary policy rules in Brazil," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 31-52.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:31-52
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.03.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fernando Chertman & Michael Hutchison & David Zink, 2019. "Facing the Quadrilemma: Taylor Rules, Intervention Policy and Capital Controls in Large Emerging Markets," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_016, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    2. Kose, Ayhan & Matsuoka, Hideaki & Panizza, Ugo & Vorisek, Dana, 2019. "Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 13601, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Inflation targeting; Credibility; Emerging market economies; Brazil;

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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